Trump needs unity among Republicans to pass his budget bill. Can he get it? : NPR

Congress returns to DC with plans to begin the detailed process of the turn President Trump’s domestic policy agenda will help balance costs, along with a multi-trillion dollar policy bill that is expected to touch on everything from tax cuts and Defense Department funding to expanding border collateral spending.

Republicans may control both the House and Senate, but they are already fighting a difficult battle to find consensus on key elements of the plan. The facts in the party are at odds with the basics A budgetary framework that directs committees to start work. house I barely approved the bill before my two-week holiday break. And they plan to start their next step this week.

Republicans use a A budget tool known as a settlementthe process that allows Congress to bypass the 60-vote threshold normally required to advance Senate bills. At this stage, the committee is working to meet instructions for changing revenue, deficit, expenditure, or debt limits at a specific amount. Ultimately, the Budget Committee brings together all the drafted laws from the committee into one large legislative package where both chambers of commerce vote.

However, reaching that point would be a bruising effort to test the GOP’s ability to overcome internal fissures at the tight margins of both chambers.

“They have a very slim majority,” said Josh Chaffetz, a law professor at Georgetown University. “Can they actually keep the entire meeting together in both chambers? We haven’t seen many tests yet, as there’s very little legislative activity yet.”

House speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has set the goal of bringing legislation to Trump’s desks by Memorial Day. This is an ambitious timeline that might fall on the side of the road.

Differences in the size of spending and reductions

Republicans are aiming to create a legislative package that extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Employment Act, while allowing additional cuts.

But there are huge differences among Republicans, including surpassing the target itself. House committees have been directed to cut spending at least $1.5 trillion. The Senate has just $4 billion on floors for spending cuts.

Sarah Binder, a political professor at George Washington University, said the deficit has risen in the years since Trump’s tax package first passed, putting more pressure on the Fiscal Hawks who are worried about spending but want to support low taxes.

“Conservatives want to cut their spending quite a lot,” she said. “There’s as much disagreement as there is (usually) more than expected from something.”

To get a blueprint for the budget passing through the House of Representatives, Senate GOP leaders have publicly committed to finding greater spending cuts than those included in the resolution itself. However, bridging that division is not easy.

“Republicans have always had this challenge and we talk about reducing the abstract deficit, but it’s very difficult when it’s time to identify what to cut to fix the budget,” said Jessica Riedle, a senior Manhattan Institute Fellow, who previously worked as the chief economist for Senator R-Ohio.

“Now they have to roll up their sleeves and find ways to dramatically cut Medicaid, student loans and food aid programs that are popular not only in democratic districts, but also in many Republican districts,” Riedl said.

The Medicaid battle will be frontline and center

The main issue is the reduction of federal state Medicaid Health insurance programs for disabled and low-income adults. The House has directed the Energy and Commerce Committee, which governs the program, to find $880 billion in savings over the next decade.

a Report Last month, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office discovered that provisions in the House plan could only be reached through massive Medicaid cuts.

But he vowed not to support measures that would lead to Medicaid benefits cuts, including Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who vowed to not support a major cut in the program.

Twelve House Republicans recently wrote to the chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, along with House leaders.

“We must not come at the expense of those who rely on these interests for the health and economic security that balances the federal budget.” letter read.

On his part, Johnson pledged to “protect the benefits of being legally entitled to everyone,” and to seek “waste, fraud, abuse” for savings.

“This will tie Republican lawmakers to the knot,” Riedl said. “If you make a specific promise that your major spending program won’t be reduced, you will see that such promises are mathematically impossible within the framework of savings you have promised.

Tensions will only increase between lawmakers who say they won’t vote for massive cuts to popular programs and lawmakers who voted just to advance budget resolution because of their promise to cut the deficit.

“The problem with Republicans now is that they have to deal with the biggest Medicaid cuts or break their promises to those who have made progress because they wanted to get the biggest Medicaid cuts,” said Bobby Kogan, a former Senate Budget Committee staffer, the current Senior Budget Committee, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress.

Time pressure adds more complications. Republicans also want to use the bill to increase debt restrictions. Independent analysts hope that the federal government may reach borrowing restrictions someday this summer.

Additionally, the settlement process will set a deadline of September 30th to pass the invoice or lose all the benefits of the budget process.

“This legislative schedule will really bolster the time they have left as we’re in the summer season,” Binder said. “Otherwise, the Senate budget resolution will lose its privilege if it expires.”

About Mathematics

You may have heard that a lot of “current policy baselines” have been thrown next month.

Simply put, it’s a way to make a tax cut extension of nearly $4 trillion, which looks costly.

This approach, driven by some Senate Republicans, essentially counts the 2017 tax cuts. This will expire this year as a continuing policy that will cost no extensions.

“The equivalent is if Democrats could come back next year after a year of Medicare for everyone and completely unpaid Medicare, then come back next year, OK, and be free to continue,” Kogan said. “That’s what Republicans do.”

Supporters of this approach say it will help enable more permanent policies while not hindering Congress’s efforts to reduce spending. Opponents call it a budget gimmick that adds trillions to the increase in deficits.

Maya MacGuiineas, chairman of the Bipartisan Committee for Responsible Federal Budget, is one of the experts who say that changing the rules for assessing spending in this way can have lasting consequences.

“This ad hoc, inconsistent, manipulative, dishonest approach to budgeting is enough to explode your head and will explode your debt,” MacGuineas said. statement. “The council is not even. Pretend At this point, make an honest budget. ”

Strategy too They will not fly with the deficit Hawks. He doesn’t go beyond hand in hand with the budget resolution, because he is confident that he will ultimately get enough cuts.

And this is where Trump’s factors can take effect.

The big difference between Trump’s first and second presidents is the level of his involvement during the hill negotiations. He personally calls members directly to support his priorities and publicly threatens major lawmakers who are not in line.

“Everything has the red line is fine,” Kogan said. “But one question that members need to understand is, when Donald Trump calls you and says and votes for this or tells me you’re dead, what do you think about your red line?”