Everyone loves a good upset.
It’s fun to root for people who are losing, but you don’t often see them winning. But this got us thinking. What were the biggest upsets of this year’s NFL and college football seasons?
Did a double-digit underdog win this year? Is it more common for underdogs to win in college football than in the NFL? If you have these questions, we’re here to answer them.
FOX Sports Research has combed through the data to analyze the top five biggest upsets in each sport based on point spread. Is your team on the list?
Let’s take a look:
NFL
Cowboys (+10.5) Commanders, Week 12
The biggest upset of the season, from a point differential standpoint, came in Week 12 when the Cowboys defeated the Commanders on the road, trailing by 10.5 points. Cooper Rush upset Washington, which just clinched a playoff spot last week, going 24-of-32 for 247 passing yards, two passing scores and no interceptions. Since 2022, teams underdogs by 10 points or more have gone straight up at 9-55 (SU) during that span, and are just 1-14 in the 2024 season. Through 17 weeks of play, the Cowboys were the only team to win as double-digit underdogs.
Raiders (+9) Ravens, Week 2
Baltimore got off to a slow start to the season, losing the opening game against the Chiefs and losing to the Raiders the following week as a nine-point favorite. You might think upsets are common early in the season, but the only time they’ve fallen behind by nine points or more in Week 2 is 2-16 since 2015 and 3-36 since 2004. If you look at the Raiders in particular, they are 6-29. SU hasn’t trailed by nine points or more in a regular season game since the 2010 season.
Patriots (+8) vs. Bengals, Week 1
Week 1 started with a big upset as the Patriots were the favorites to enter the season with the worst record in the NFL. Las Vegas wasn’t wrong. They are currently 3-13, which is tied for the worst record through 17 weeks. However, in the season opener, they defeated Joe Burrow and the Bengals as an eight-point road underdog. Since 2002, New England has only trailed by eight points or more in 10 regular season games, going 2-8. Another win came in 2016 when Jimmy Garoppolo started against the Cardinals and scored 8.5 points.
Broncos (+8) vs. Jets, Week 4
This may come as a surprise, but bookmakers and fans alike did not expect the Jets to finish 4-12 entering Week 18 of the season. On the other hand, no one expected the Broncos to finish 9-7. We’re entering the final week of the season, competing for a playoff spot. In Week 4, Bo Nix faced the Jets as an eight-point underdog on the road and won by one point in a game where he totaled just 19 points. Denver has struggled this season, going 11-5 against the spread (ATS), tied for the second-best coverage percentage in the league. The Broncos have lost to SU by eight points or more since 1998, going 5-22, and this is their first such win since 2021.
Titans (+8) vs. Texans, Week 12
Like several other teams on this list, the Titans have struggled all year, currently sitting at 3-13 on the season, tied for the worst record in the NFL. However, coach Brian Callahan’s team got a much-needed win in Week 12, defeating the Texans on the road after trailing by eight points. Now you have to understand how rare these kinds of wins are for Tennessee. Since 1985, the Titans are 9-43 SU underdogs by eight points or more.
college football
Northern Illinois (+28) at 5 Notre Dame, Week 2
The biggest underdog to win in college football this year was Northern Illinois in Week 2, defeating Notre Dame as a 28-point underdog. Ireland’s loss was the first time a top-five team lost to an unranked opponent since 2002. Entering the game, MAC teams were 0-50 against AP top five teams since 1978, going back to the odds database. It was the first win against a top-five team in Northern Illinois history, as they were 0-14 against top-10 teams since 1978.
Kennesaw State Liberty (+27), Week 9
This was arguably one of the biggest upsets of the entire college football season. Liberty entered the game as a 27-point favorite against a Kennesaw State team that was 0-6. But what makes this upset truly special is that the Owls’ 2024 season was their first at the FBS level. They lost those six games by an average of 19.3 points per game, and somehow they ended up facing a Flames team that was not only 5-0 but 13-0 in the 2023 regular season. Kennesaw State did just that. They won 27-24 at home, their first win as an FBS program.
Vanderbilt (+23.5) at 1 Alabama, Week 6
In perhaps the biggest win in program history, Vanderbilt defeated No. 1 Alabama, which trailed by 23.5 points in a Week 6 shootout. This victory was quite historic. I’ve listed some key points below to explain how great that victory was.
- Alabama finished as the favorite with 23.5 points. This is the sixth time since 1978 that the AP No. 1 team has lost to a favorite team with 23 or more points, and the first time since 2008.
- The AP’s No. 1 team, a favorite with at least 23 points, is 244-6 since 1978.
- Playing as the AP’s No. 1 team, Alabama entered the game with a 60-0 record and was the favorite to win by at least 20 points for the first time since 1978.
- Alabama entered the game at 155-3 the first time in 1978 that it was a 20-point or higher favorite (Georgia Tech (+24) in 1981, LSU (+24) in 1993, UL in 2007). Monroe (+24.5).
- This is the fourth time in history that Alabama has lost to an unranked opponent as an AP No. 1 team (2021 to Texas A&M, 1980 to Mississippi State and 1962 to Georgia Tech).
- Alabama has played as the AP No. 1 team since 1978 and enters the game with a 60-2 record against unranked opponents (losing to Texas A&M in 2021 and Mississippi State in 1980) ).
- Vanderbilt is 1-7 against the AP’s No. 1 team since 1978. They scored in those seven losses. combined 44 Scoring (40 points against Alabama).
- Vanderbilt also earned its first-ever win against an Associated Press Top 5 team. They entered the match with a total of 0 wins and 60 losses against AP Top 5 opponents.
Georgia State (+23) vs. Texas State, Week 13
Dell McGee’s first season as Georgia State’s head coach was tough. The Panthers finished the year with a record of 3 wins and 9 losses, entering their matchup with Texas State on a seven-game losing streak. However, despite trailing by 23 points against the Bobcats, they were able to win by eight points in a game where they scored a total of 96 points. They don’t call the Sun Belt Conference the “Fan Belt” for nothing.
Stanford (+21) at 22 Louisville, Week 12
Stanford’s first year in the ACC was less than ideal, finishing 3-9 and 2-6 in conference play. However, Troy Taylor & Co. came away with a big win against No. 22 Louisville in Week 12. The win snapped a six-game losing streak and was Stanford’s third and final win of the season. The Cardinal recorded their first win against an AP-ranked opponent since 2021 and are just 1-14 against top-25 opponents since 2022, with their only win coming against Louisville. Since 1978, ACC teams that have underperformed other ACC teams by 20-25 points are 11-127 SU. This was a real upset.
