As Democrats regroup after the 2024 election, some are finding cautious optimism in an unlikely place: statehouses.
Although the party faced disappointing results, including a loss in the Michigan state legislature, it did not face the kind of crushing defeat that often occurs in other national elections.
The results in the state legislature were far from a victory for Democrats. But these states are a departure from the presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris lost every battleground state, including states where Democrats made gains or maintained majorities in state government. Democrats maintained a one-seat majority in Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives, flipped 14 seats in Wisconsin under a new electoral map, defeated a Republican supermajority in North Carolina and overrode Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s veto. I focused on it.
“I can’t remember an election in which we were in the same presidential battleground and had such sustained success and were able to reduce losses so much,” said Executive Director Heather Williams. Democratic Party’s state legislative campaign arm. “There are definitely lessons to be learned from that in order to maintain a majority in Pennsylvania despite losing.”
While it’s not the overwhelming advantage Democrats had hoped for this election cycle, strategists who focus on these races say the results are a sign of what Democrats need to be successful in each state. This proves that they understand what is needed.
Republicans think the idea is laughable.
“I don’t see how anyone over there can see this as anything other than an utter disaster,” said Dee Duncan, chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, who will step down from her post at the end of the year.
Democrats acknowledge they fell short of their goal, but believe this year’s results lay the groundwork for future cycles, even if they can’t help what’s happening at the top.
Leslie Martes, chief strategy officer for Forward Majority, a PAC that spent $45, said, “I know we’re building the best sailing ships we can in the statehouse over and over again, but it’s more expensive than voting.” “You can’t control the wind at the level.” Millions of people are supporting Democratic state legislative candidates this cycle.
One of the lessons emphasized by the group of Democrats who voted no is that more money and attention from other party members is needed.
“While we are clearly encouraged by the tenacity of Democrats in state elections, one thing must be clear: This overperformance occurred.” in spite of “This is not due to the National Party’s efforts at the state legislative level.” Post-election memo from Democratic group States Project shared exclusively with POLITICO.
The group, founded in 2017 by former New York state Rep. Daniel Squadron and Democratic donor Adam Pritzker, has emerged as a top player in Democratic state legislatures, spending more than $70 million to elect Democratic lawmakers this term. .
“Simply put, national Democrats continue to ignore and underfund campaigns in state legislatures,” the memo said.
Williams, chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, also predicted a lack of investment in the election.
It is common for committees to sound the alarm over financial issues, but this issue in particular tends to be overshadowed by the negative vote due to persistent complaints.
Democrats believe the record amount of money poured into these races is one of the main reasons state legislative candidates bucked national election trends so much. DLCC received $2.5 million from the Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee. Although this is a historic amount, it is still small considering the huge amount of political spending to come. The DNC also pumped more than $260 million into state parties this cycle, with some of that money going to these down-ballot races.
Eight-term Democratic state Rep. Frank Burns, who is running from a Republican-heavy district in a key race for a majority in Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives, has spent more than $4 million on advertising, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Republicans spent $2.5 million, compared to $2.5 million. Two years ago, total spending was $1.5 million.
In Arizona, non-Democratic groups raised millions of dollars. State projects alone have spent $9.3 million in the state, 13 times more than the next largest national funder, the memo said. Still, even though it was Democrats outspent in major racesIn the end, the Republicans prevailed.
Incoming Rep. Kevin Volk, the only Democrat to flip seats in Congress, remains focused on top issues like improving public education and affordable housing, but the lack of Democratic control has “It changes the parameters of what’s possible,” he said. ”
Democrats are now looking ahead, as the power struggle in each state is far from over. Because state legislators are elected to Congress, Virginia and Michigan have a small number of vacancies that could lead to alignment of state legislatures.
Michigan Democrats face the possibility of a tied Senate. A special election will be held to replace Democratic Rep.-elect Kristen MacDonald Rivett in the floating seat, but if Republicans accept the election, they will have to rely on Democratic Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist as the tiebreaker. .
Virginia will hold a special election in January for Democratic Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam’s state Senate seat. This constituency is advantageous for the Democratic Party, and given that the Democratic Party holds a one-seat majority, it will be an important constituency. If Republicans can reverse, there will be a tie in the state Senate, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl Sears casting the tie-breaking vote. There will also be a special election to fill a safe Democratic seat in the state Legislature.
A special election for Republican Rep.-elect John McGuire’s state Senate seat has not yet been scheduled, but it is expected to remain in Republican hands.
A high-stakes battle for the state House of Representatives will begin next year in Virginia as well. Democrats won a landslide victory in 2023, flipping control of the House and asserting full control of the state Legislature.
“Every election year, the dynamics change a little bit and we’re entering new uncharted territory, but the fundamentals are the same and we’ve done pretty well every year,” said Susan, chair of the Virginia Democratic Party. Ta. Swecker.
Swecker said he was encouraged by some of the recent results in Virginia. Based on data still being finalized, Harris won 59 of the 100 state House districts (one fewer than President Joe Biden won in 2020) and 25 of the 40 state Senate districts. He won one more district than Biden.
But she also warned against drawing too many conclusions from this month’s national elections and urged against finger-pointing.
“We’re two weeks away from this earth-shaking election, and we’re still finding solutions,” she said. “I think the worst thing you can do as a leader is stand out and say, ‘Here are the three things we need to change and the three things we didn’t do right.'” Take a moment. Why not take a look at things and try to understand what happened? ”
