TUCSON, Ariz. — For Arizona Democrats, this election is about more than delivering a key Sun Belt state to Kamala Harris. It’s also a test of the strength of the party’s lower-ranking candidates as Democrats mount their most aggressive campaign yet to flip the state Legislature.
Taking control of Phoenix has emerged as a top goal nationwide for Democrats focused on rebuilding state power after more than a decade of Republican dominance in the state capital.
Democrats believe that after years of failure, they finally have the right ingredients to win complete statewide control for the first time since the 1960s: record fundraising, stepped-up candidate recruiting and abortion emerging as the defining issue of the election.
And the battle is fierce: Democrats need to win one seat each in the House and Senate to tie with Republicans, and two seats each to win a majority.
Their message is simple: Republicans are crazy and have pushed Arizona into a desperate situation. It reflects a broader national strategy as Democrats solidify their approach to defeating former President Donald Trump and taking back power in states. A win in Arizona in November could provide a road map for Democrats looking to weaken Republican control over state governments.
“This is the best chance Democrats have in my lifetime to flip both the House and the Senate,” said Democratic strategist Adam Kinsey.
“Arizona isn’t becoming more Democratic because of voter registration or demographic changes,” he said. “It’s because Democrats are fielding more moderate, more populist candidates and Republicans are fielding and winning their most extreme candidates in primaries.”
But convincing moderate voters to switch sides will be a big challenge in a state where MAGAism runs deep. Arizona’s independent-minded cowboy spirit, home to iconic former Republican senators Barry Goldwater and John McCain, made the vast desert a perfect refuge for the aggressive conservatism embodied by Trump and his supporters. Polls had suggested Democrats would struggle, especially before Harris emerged as the front-runner, and their strategy hinges on everything falling into place perfectly on election night. With the margins this close, there’s no room for error.
“There’s a lot that seems crazy about the national Democratic Party,” said Republican consultant Stan Barnes. “People in the middle are trying to figure out which party is crazier. The very nature of that jump ball is a mystery.”
Campaigning in 100 degree heat
When about two dozen Democratic volunteers gathered in a garage outside Tucson for a pre-campaign rally ahead of this week’s primary, the room was buzzing with activity. College students and retirees alike were excited by Ms. Harris’s rise to the top, speculating about who she might pick as vice president and getting excited about the possibility of choosing their local senator. Mark Kelly.
But some veteran Arizona political scientists are skeptical that Harris will be accepted by moderates in the battleground state, which President Joe Biden won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020. Burns, the former state assemblyman, believes Harris’ well-known record in California will put off Republicans, arguing that “it’s easy to label her as a San Francisco liberal.”
“I think it’s a misconception to think that Kamala Harris can come to Arizona and win on the strength that Trump is an idiot,” he said.
At first glance, LD17 is a Republican safe haven, with all its volunteers. 8-point advantage In this upper-middle-class suburban district at the foot of the Catalina Mountains, Democrats have made progress in recent years by appealing to younger voters and women, and now see winning the 17th District as a path to a majority. “If Democrats were writing a script for how they could make inroads in Republican communities, this is the perfect place,” Kinsey said.
As volunteers and candidates dispersed to canvass doors before the summer heat became unbearable, Harris’ name was rarely mentioned. Instead, conversations with voters focused on issues like border security, public school funding and the rising cost of living. This is the approach taken by lesser candidates: acknowledging the national situation, but quickly steering voters into a discussion of what was happening locally.
“Honestly, I’m trying to take the conversation away from the federal election and get people to understand what’s at stake in the state legislature,” said John McLean, a Democrat who felt the call to run for state senate in the 17th state district. egg Overturned. “I work on issues like women’s reproductive freedom, supporting public education and securing the future of Arizona’s water. These are issues that resonate with me. Registered Republicans realize they are not being represented by Trump’s party.”
The Democratic candidates trying to unseat Tucson’s Republican incumbent fit the mold of moderate Democrats in Arizona: a pair of first-time business owners frustrated by divisive political rhetoric. McLean and state Assembly candidate Kevin Volk have been canvassing door-to-door every weekend; Volk estimates he’s visited nearly 4,000 houses so far, having to glue his shoes together.
“This is a battle between extremism and people who want to get things done,” Volk, a former public school teacher, told the group of volunteers. “The whole state, even the whole country, is looking to what we do here in Southern Arizona in LD17, and with enough effort and enough resources, we’re going to go all in and get it done.”
The state senator representing LD17 is one of the most controversial Republicans in the state legislature. A staunch supporter of the Freedom Caucus, Sen. Justine Wadsack has pushed anti-LGBTQ+ bills, including one that would require drag artists who perform in front of children to register as sex offenders, and has repeated conspiracy theories about 9/11 and the Uvalde school shooting. Weeks before the primary, she received a speeding ticket for going 71 mph in a 35 mph speed zone, and the Fraternal Order of Police withdrew its endorsement.
But Wadsack narrowly lost in the primary to former state Sen. Vince Leach, who was preparing for a rematch after defeating Wadsack in 2022. Democrats had expected Wadsack to win the primary because they saw him as an easier candidate to beat than Leach, who has a conservative record on social issues but focused on cutting taxes during his eight years as a state representative.
Wadsack did not respond to a request for comment.
Leach, a Trump supporter, said he is not a party moderate, but he doesn’t identify with the far right either, and he doesn’t think abortion will be as big a voter advantage as Democrats hope because voters are more interested in other issues.
“Arizona has three things: border, taxes and education,” Leach said in an interview.
Earn huge amounts of cash
One of the reasons Democrats failed to win Congress in 2022 is that they didn’t field enough candidates to make up the numbers.
Nationally, Democrats are more likely to vote without a vote than Republicans. In 2022, Democrats did not vote in 38% of all elections, while Republicans did not vote in 12% of elections. In Arizona, a key base for Republican election denialism fueled by Trump, Democrats did not vote in 33% of all 2022 elections.
Trump’s rise has motivated some Democrats to get more involved in politics, and candidate-recruiting groups say challenging Republicans who deny the results of the 2020 presidential election is a compelling argument for getting more Democrats on the ballot. Contest Every Race, a group that nominates Democrats for office, has recruited challengers this term to 93 people who allegedly deny the results.
Another hurdle for Democrats is convincing voters to care about state elections and fill out their ballots completely. In a political environment as crowded as Arizona’s this election cycle, it’s especially tough for these candidates to break through.
Democrats are wary of the problem of “back-loaded ballot roll-off,” in which voters show up to the polls primarily for high-profile national elections but lose interest and don’t fill out their ballots for local contests. The phenomenon is more prevalent among Democrats, who say 80% of them don’t completely fill out their ballots, compared with 32% of Republicans, according to a survey by the progressive group Sister District.
And voters have plenty to consider this year, including a reproductive rights ballot measure and new efforts to police the border, with Democrats and Republicans offering competing proposals aimed at outlawing their respective bases.
In response to repeated blows from Republican campaign finance, Democrats have been building a stronger national fundraising network through the creation of new groups such as the States Project and Forward Majority. This is in addition to the ongoing work of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a division of the Democratic National Committee that focuses on state legislative races. These groups plan to spend at least $165 million in every state across the country trying to flip Congress and defend majorities.
“The policy stakes are huge. We saw it in Michigan and Minnesota when we defeated special interest and extremist state legislative majorities,” said States Project co-founder and former New York state Rep. Daniel Squadron, citing two states where Democrats will win full control of the Legislature in 2022. “We believe states should be defined by who governs in their state and what they accomplish.” [Gov. Katie] Hobbs’ policies were weakened by the Arizona majority.”
To win a majority in Arizona, Democrats also know they must play defense and defend seats they’ve recently taken, such as the 9th District in Mesa, another swing district leaning Democratic. In this Phoenix suburb, Democrats are banking on turnout among college students and working-class voters. The district was key to Democrats’ narrow capture in 2022. Seth Bratman, one of two Democrats to defeat a conservative state House Republican in the last election, won by just 760 votes.
“We’re running against extremists. This is a battleground district and the vote is even,” Bratman told another group of volunteers on a campaign trip to Mesa this month. “This is a very important election. My worst nightmare is that I win two seats elsewhere in the state, but lose my seat and therefore lose my majority.”
