Bobby Slowik knows he needs to get Joe Mixon back on track.
After an inconsistent offense all season, the Texans’ run game has faltered in recent weeks. Mixon averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game through the first eight games of the season. In his last four appearances, including 14 carries for 57 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, his grade has dropped to 50.8.
Slowik’s view is that Houston will need to call more runs, even if the Texans want to throw the ball more like they have the past two weeks, as Houston begins the homestretch by hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day. There is.
Since Week 12, Mixon is averaging 15 carries, down from 21.5 through Week 11.
“If I give Joe the ball 12 times, Joe’s not going to get 100 yards,” Houston’s offensive coordinator said Monday. “The run game is going to be a big part of playoff football.”
With Tank Dell out for the season, it’s even more important for the Texans (9-6) to get their efficient rushing attack back. The second-year wide receiver dislocated his kneecap and tore his ACL on a touchdown grab against Kansas City, an injury that took a mental toll on Houston. Dell is one of the Texans’ most beloved players and one of quarterback CJ Stroud’s best friends.
From a football standpoint, the franchise lost its second-best receiver.
According to Next Gen Stats, Dell ran a team-high 310 routes from a wide range of alignments. His absence will be felt most in the intermediate passing game, meaning passes between 10 and 19 air yards. According to NGS, Dell had 323 of his 667 receiving yards (48.4%) this season. There he posted a better-than-expected catch percentage of +13.4% and added +-26.3 expected points in the receiving game. Dell and Nico Collins are the only Texans wide receivers with better-than-expected catch rates and double-digit EPA (Stephon, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8) Diggs included), which shows how much playmaking Houston is missing. on the outside.
To elaborate further, Stroud has targeted intermediate players on the field on 23.3% of his passes this season, the 10th highest rate in the league, according to NGS. He targeted that part of the field at the league’s highest rate during his record-setting rookie season.
Intermediate level has been a huge part of Stroud’s success at the start of his career, but now he will no longer have that important reason.
“We’ve got to keep cutting trees, we’ve got to keep bringing water,” Stroud said. “In the position we’re in, we don’t often wallow in our emotions for very long. We just have to keep rolling.”
Enter Diontae Johnson, who the Texans claimed off waivers from the Ravens on Monday.
In his final full season with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023, Johnson was most effective in terms of higher-than-expected catch rates, earning EPA in the middle of the field and EPA per target, according to NGS. Of his 717 receiving yards, 310 (43.2%) came from intermediate passes. Also, 78.2% of his routes in 2023 will come from wide alignments, another indication that Johnson could be a good addition to replace Dell at this point in the season.
The problem is that Houston is only guaranteed three more games in 2024 (the final two regular-season games and a wild-card matchup). And it seems unlikely that Johnson will play against his former team, the Ravens, on Christmas Day, just two days after making the claim. In fact, coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that it’s “unrealistic” for a rookie to be able to play fast enough in a short week.
In reality, Johnson is likely only guaranteed two games with Houston, giving him very limited time to get used to Houston’s playbook and build trust with Stroud.
Even if Johnson, who caught just one pass for 6 yards during a drama-filled six-game stay in Baltimore, is motivated to finish 2024 on a high note ahead of a contract year. The reality is that his impact on making the playoffs is huge. The number must be small.
That means the Texans will have to rely heavily on tight end Dalton Schultz to fill Dell’s void, and more will be expected from receivers Jon Metchie, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. The defense, which has played at a Super Bowl level, will need to maintain its elite play. Houston will get an added boost ahead of next week’s regular-season finale against Tennessee with starting linebacker Azeez Al Shaair set to return from suspension.
But getting Mixon and the run game back on track will be key for a team riddled with injuries starting Wednesday against Baltimore.
“Just because we’re in this position doesn’t mean we feel sorry for ourselves,” Stroud said. “No, you have to keep rolling, and I think the way we play helps. Winning helps, although of course it doesn’t completely fill the hole. , you may feel better in the moment. But I think the important thing for us is to take the coming weeks as seriously as possible and focus on one thing at a time.
“I think that’s the recipe for what the rest of the season is going to be.”
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked at The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network. titans I continued as a beat writer for a year and a half. He covered seattle seahawks He was with SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) before moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter. @benyarthur.
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