Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?

It is no secret that Americans’ political sentiments follow differences in race, ethnicity, education, and age. But what makes presidential elections so competitive is often how these demographic groups balance out against each other.

In 2024, this delicate balance will be key to understanding the seven battleground states with the closest presidential elections, according to polls. In the last election, several of these states were decided by less than 40,000 votes. Since then, the two parties have added about 1.3 million potential voters together, and even small changes in sentiment or turnout among specific groups could be enough to change the outcome of this election. There is sex.

To better understand the demographic dynamics at play in battleground states, The New York Times conducted an in-depth review of the 2020 contests, comparing precinct-level results with census data to determine who is at play. estimated how they voted. We looked at race and ethnicity, age, education, and geography to identify trends and key groups in each state. (Gender is also a factor in increasing partisanship, but was not included in this analysis.)

what to see President Biden’s winning coalition relies heavily on Latino voters, who made up nearly a quarter of those who voted in 2020, and that number is likely to rise even further this election. But while the state’s Latino voters typically support Democrats, no group is monolithic.

Experts say Latinos are less attached to political parties than other nonwhite groups and could be persuaded to change their votes. Additionally, this group is largely comprised of young U.S.-born Latinos voting for the first time, and their sentiments are difficult to predict. Recent polls show that former President Donald J. Trump is making inroads with young voters and voters of color.

In 2020, Trump’s biggest supporters were white voters 35 and older. This group accounted for half of the ballots, due in part to the state’s disproportionately large number of white retirees.

For Democrats, it could win even more votes. In 2020, more votes were cast for Democratic Senate candidates than for Biden. “Voters who voted for Mark Kelly but decided not to vote for Biden or Trump may have determined the outcome of the race,” said Samara Clara, a political science professor at the University of Arizona. .

what to see Georgia Democrats have long been guided by the “30/30 rule,” a term popularized by University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Block III. According to the paper, for Democrats to win, black voters would need to make up 30% of all eligible voters, and at least 30% of white voters would need to vote for Democrats.

Black voters, who cast nearly a third of their votes in 2020, supported Mr. Biden by an overwhelming margin of nearly 90 percent. But that reliable support base appeared to be slipping earlier this year, and experts say Vice President Kamala Harris needs to energize and excite the group. Approximately 850,000 Black residents of Georgia did not vote in 2020.

“If turnout among black voters is poor, it will be hopeless for Democrats to win,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.

Both parties also hope to appeal to the growing share of white voters with bachelor’s degrees, whose votes were almost evenly split between Biden and Trump in 2020.

what to see In 2020, Biden easily won Michigan, at least by battleground state standards.

But Trump performed very well with white suburban and rural voters, who made up nearly two-thirds of voters in the 2020 election.

In 2020, Democrats’ strong performance in nonwhite voters and the Detroit suburbs erased the Republican advantage in small and medium-sized city suburbs. But even though black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Biden, they were a relatively small minority: just 14% of them. People who voted. And experts say black Democratic support may be waning in Michigan.

“There’s definitely an attitude that they’re not represented relative to their population and their outsized role within the Democratic Party,” said Matt Grossman, a political science professor at Michigan State University. He pointed to Detroit, a majority-black city with no black representation in Congress. “It’s like, how much attention are you giving us? So how much do you take us for granted?

An estimated 3 percent of Michigan voters are Muslim and Arab-American, traditionally a strong Democratic constituency, but that could change this year. Many of these voters have expressed anger and dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the Gaza war, and some are considering sitting out this election or voting for third-party candidates. Some say it may be a choice.

what to see Education is a major political fault line across the country, with college-educated voters far more likely to support Democrats, and voters with less education more likely to support Republicans. However, Nevada is a major exception to this rule. Democrats have won the last four elections in the state, even though the percentage of voters with college degrees is relatively low.

That’s because white voters are primarily divided by educational background, and many of Nevada’s less educated voters are not white. Biden won half of the votes in Nevada among voters without a four-year degree, which is unusual for the nation as a whole.

Inflation has hurt working-class voters in recent years, and concerns about the economy could make it easier for Trump’s campaign to erode the Democratic advantage among blue-collar voters of color.

“Nevada is a bit of an oddity,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, pointing to the state’s low voter turnout, high diversity and transitional population. said. “All of this means there are a lot of potential untapped voters that can be mobilized.”

what to see In 2020, North Carolina had the narrowest lead of any state Trump won. Rural voters, who account for nearly one-fifth of the total, contributed to Trump’s victory.

But North Carolina also has many small cities with strong partisan divides between urban residents who lean Democratic and suburban residents who lean Republican.

Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said that to flip the state, Democrats will need to reduce their loss of votes in rural areas and increase turnout in smaller cities like Greensboro and Asheville. said.

“If you see a slight movement away from Trump in rural areas, that would be very important,” he said. “These locations will continue to appear red on the map, but the difference could be the difference between winning and losing.”

what to see As in other states, education plays a large role in the partisan divide in Pennsylvania. White voters without a bachelor’s degree make up nearly half of all voters and supported Trump by a 3-1 margin in 2020. Still, it wasn’t enough to break through a coalition of white college-educated voters and voters of color who gave Biden a victory.

Another big factor is geography.

Trump controlled the state’s rural areas, small towns and even the suburbs of Pittsburgh. But Biden showed strong support in Pennsylvania’s cities and suburban Philadelphia, areas that accounted for more than 40% of the vote in 2020.

Similar geographic disparities among voters were found in Wisconsin. Most of Trump’s support came from the state’s more than 1,000 small towns and the Milwaukee suburbs.

But the fastest-growing region of the state is an increasingly Democratic one: the Madison suburbs, home to the University of Wisconsin’s main campus.

Voter turnout in Dane County, which includes Madison, in 2020 was 89 percent.

“This county has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the nation,” said Charles Franklin, the association’s director. Marquette Law School Poll. “The question for Democrats here is: Can they squeeze more votes out of Dane County?”