To blitz or not to blitz? That’s the question each defensive coaching staff faces every week. For nearly every game in 2024, DC Terrill Austin and the Pittsburgh Steelers opted for the latter. They are rushing at their lowest pace in a decade, trusting their front four to get back home while protecting themselves in coverage. Will that change against Aaron Rodgers? There are reasons to conduct lightning strikes, and there are reasons to take safety precautions.
Reason for Blitzkrieg
Aaron Rodgers doesn’t move well. Not just because he’s 40 years old and in his 20th season, but because he’s battled through knee and foot injuries, missed practices and limped through games. The Jets offensive line has issues and Rodgers has been beat up this year.
Going after him too early could throw off New York’s rhythm. If the offense picks up on that, it could allow Pittsburgh to build an early lead and play from the front instead of back. And considering Pittsburgh hasn’t blitzed much this season, New York could be caught off guard by a more offensive approach. I also worry about sitting back and letting Rodgers tear the secondary to shreds. Rodgers still has pinpoint accuracy and can make high-level throws.
Rodgers is a smart veteran who likes to get the ball out of his hands, but he has struggled against blitzes this season. He had a miserable time against the Minnesota Vikings in London, surrendering three picks, including this pick-six, to LB Andrew Van Ginkel’s hands on sim-pressure looks from Brian Flores. I threw it into.
Against this blitz, the Jets are 15th in the league in negative EPA. By comparison, the Steelers are 11th, with both teams getting blitzes at roughly the same rate.
Finally, the Steelers last faced Rodgers in 2021 as a member of the Green Bay Packers. According to our chart, the Steelers converted 12 of 36 chances for a probability of 33.3%. It was a great success. Of 11 dropbacks (one was a scramble), Rodgers was just 3-of-11 for 23 yards and one sack, giving him a quarterback rating of 39.6. It’s the same as throwing a ball to the ground.
Pittsburgh hasn’t had a lot of success this year, but when it has, the rush is back. When they blitz, the Steelers defense generates pressure 40.4% of the time. If you don’t, your chances of getting pressured are only 25.6%.
Reasons for not conducting blitzkrieg
Will Rush make it home? Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as quickly as almost every quarterback in football. According to NextGenStats, Rodgers’ snap-to-throw time is 2.55 seconds. That’s fourth-fastest in the NFL behind Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield and Andy Dalton. If the ball goes out before the rush hits him, the blitz won’t work.
It’s also not the reason Pittsburgh has the second-highest scoring defense this season. There’s no need to fix what isn’t broken. The Steelers may want to stick with what’s working. They had experienced their fair share of miscommunication and misreporting, and could only expand by sending in additional express personnel.
Given the Jets’ talent at the skill positions and their top three wide receivers in Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard (tied for the NFL lead with five touchdowns), the Steelers will want to have enough personnel in coverage. are. Blitting leads to more one-on-one matchups and leaves the play to the secondary, which has been strong overall this season. But that’s a lot to ask of a talented quarterback like Rodgers who throws these targets.
Alex Highsmith is also set to return, which should accelerate the team’s pass rush and give the front four more confidence in its ability to get the job done.
What will happen to Austin and the Steelers? If other games are any indication, they’ll sit back and give coverage. If that’s the plan, they’ll have to come home in a hurry and Aaron Rodgers can’t be allowed to pick apart Pittsburgh’s zone coverage.
