New research suggests that Increased solar activity shortens the lifespan of SpaceX’s StarLink satellitesand may send them back to Earth at a greater speed. Perhaps intuitively, this could increase the risk of satellite debris coming ashore.
This prelint study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, adds to the wealth of evidence that demonstrates it Solar Storm wreaking havoc on Elon Musk’s Star Links. Over the past few years, the frequency and intensity of these storms has increased as the sun approaches its maximum. This is the peak of that 11-year cycle. At the same time, the number of satellites orbiting the Earth has increased rapidly. Mainly due to the rise of private megaconstells like Starlink.
A team of researchers led by Denny Oliveira of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center tracked re-entry on Starlink satellites between 2020 and 2024. This period coincided with the current rising solar cycle stage, which occurred in October 2024.
Over these five years, the 523 Starlink satellite has re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere. Oliveira and his colleagues analyzed the orbits of these satellites using statistical methods to identify patterns of orbital collapse and reentry speed during periods of high solar activity.
Researchers have found that the geographical activity in the atmosphere on the sun caused by the eruption of the sun will perform Starlink to re-reflect it into the Earth’s atmosphere earlier than expected. These satellites are design Staying on orbit for about five years. However, during severe geomagnetic storm attacks, their lifespans could be reduced to 10-12 days, Oliveira told Gizmodo.
He and his colleagues believe this will happen as geomagnetic activity heats the atmosphere and expands it. This increases the satellite’s drag, shortens lifespan, and loses altitude more rapidly when interacting with the upper atmosphere. Furthermore, orbital models that guide collision avoidance do not fully explain the effects of geomagnetic activity, so atmospheric drag may increase the likelihood of satellite OnCelite collisions. Team findings are currently available on preprint servers arxiv.
The 10-12 day difference may not sound like a big deal, but it could be nearly impossible for Starlink satellites to guarantee that Starlink satellites will return to Earth via a controlled re-entry, Oliveira explained. Furthermore, his analysis believes that increasing drag can allow the satellite to reenter at a higher speed, increasing the likelihood that debris will reach the ground.
This may seem counterintuitive, as increasing the speed of an object during re-entry generally increases the chances of complete collapse. However, Oliveira assumes that due to reduced atmospheric interactions, Starlinks are likely to re-enter if they drop at a higher speed. This study should confirm this hypothesis. This is because we have confirmed this hypothesis and do not directly assess the risk of debris.
StarLinks is designed to burn out completely during re-entry, but that doesn’t always happen. In 2024, 5.5 pounds (2.5 kilograms) of Starlink debris landed on a farm in new scientist Saskatchewan It has been reported. February this year, SpaceX I said It is possible for fragments of Starlink fragments to return to Earth, but this claimed that “there is no risk to humans in the ground, in the ocean or in the air.”
There are currently more than 7,500 Starlinks in the orbit, according to Harvard University astronomer Jonathan McDowell. track constellation. Ultimately, SpaceX hopes to Quintuple this fleet’s size with the goal of launching a total of 42,000 Starlinks. Space.com. This has been added to thousands of other satellites currently orbiting Earth.
“[This is] For the first time in history, we have so many satellites in orbit at the same time,” Oliveira said. And perhaps every day, in the next few months or years. ” Understanding how changes in solar activity affect lifespan is important as Earth’s orbit becomes more and more crowded.
