Senate Democrats’ already difficult map of 2026 has gotten even worse.
After losing a majority last November, the party faced a very narrow path out of the wilderness. Then Senator Jeanne Shaheen piled up. New Hampshire Democrats announced their retirement Wednesday, forcing Democrats to defend Sens. Gary Peters and Tina Smith from Michigan and Minnesota, as well as defending Sens. 3rd seat in 2026.
“It’s no secret that we are facing a tough map,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), “I don’t think we can read losing one senator in a state we think will do very well.”
In many Bluere states, there may be more Democrats to come. Sen. Dick Durbin is under retirement oversight in Illinois, and Sen. Michael Bennett is looking for a possible run for the Colorado governor.
Durbin, 80, refused to share his own reelection plan on Wednesday, but admitted that the party’s 2026 Senate map was “challenging.”
The Democrats’ biggest challenge has always been that Senator Susan Collins and Tom Tillis from Maine and North Carolina are the best options, and they are always a limited number of pick-up opportunities as they try to return to power. And critically, winning both will not regain control of the Senate themselves. And neither is a slam dunk for the Democrats.
It all corresponds to a check of the reality of the parties that fought, even if the next election is more than a year and a half away. They have fewer headwinds than last year, but when they lost four seats, they are in many ways 2026 to step into the actual shots that will turn the Senate upside down in 2028.
“This map is better than ’24. Sen. Tim Kane (D-Va.) said in a brief interview..
Republicans view a series of Democrat retirements as acknowledging that a GOP majority is likely to win during the midterm.
“One more!” Senator Tim Scott (Rs.C.), chairing the Senate GOP Campaign Arm; I wrote it on x. “Shaheen’s retirement is welcome news for granite stals eager to new leadership. New Hampshire has a proud tradition of electing common-sense Republicans and will do so again in 2026!”
Both parties in all three states could have a competitive primary. Democrats could take part in all three open seat contests, at least as a light favorite. Kamala Harris’ former vice president has carried both New Hampshire and Minnesota, with President Donald Trump winning Michigan, but Republicans have not won Senate races for decades.
Still, all three of these retirements early in the cycle are screaming by Republicans.
“It’s hard to beat an incumbent,” said Sen. John Boosman (R-Ark.). “Statistically, it’s very difficult. It gives Republicans the opportunity.”
Republicans are also helped by most Maine Democrats who taste the idea of challenging the rare Collins. This is a rare GOP moderate, and it is especially true as the nation has an open governor race. And the North Carolina Senate race was a long-standing Democrat, despite some Trump allies messing around with seeking Tillis primary. Louisiana, the third potential headache in GOP, has a lower risk in November. Because even if Senator Bill Cassidy loses, the party is sure that the person who will replace him will become a Republican.
Democrats believe they can get a tail next year that will increase their chances of picking up more seats. That is, Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s efforts to dramatically reduce the size of the federal government have shaken Washington, leading to public complaints from fellow Republicans.
“I just happen to believe that dynamics will be pretty good, and that’s a big factor,” Kane said, but admits that things are a “long road” from the election.
David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats’ campaign division, said the mid-way map is “ripening the offensive opportunities available to Democrats” and “Republicans have more seats to defend and do it in a hostile political environment.”
All three open Democrat states have a strong bench of Democrats elected in the 2018 wave. Personally, some democratic operatives are relieved that older senators bow during Trump’s first midterm when the administration’s party traditionally loses their seats. Perhaps it’s a better time to put fresh blood in the Senate Democrats’ Caucus.
And the party has already taken the roster for the midterm elections, so it is already making an aggressive hiring effort.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich) is taking steps towards the run, similar to Democratic Sen. Mallory McMorrow, for the potential bid in Michigan.
In Minnesota, Democrat Angie Craig is seriously considering running.
In New Hampshire, Democrats could face a crowded primary. Rep. Chris Papas, who won four terms in the Purple district, is considering Shaheen’s seat run, as is his first term MP Maggie Goodlander. If Pappas doesn’t run, former Rep. Annie Custer, who retired from the house earlier this year, told Politico that he “takes the race seriously.”
Republicans are also preparing for the fight. The former GOP Senator (who represents neighboring Massachusetts) is taking steps to set up another bid in New Hampshire as he is about to make a political comeback after his loss to Shaheen in 2014. Apparently, a rethink for 2026.
“You’ll need every dollar you can gather to hold your seat, and the expensive primary I think is useless,” said veteran New Hampshire Demoras strategist Jim Demars.
Kelly Garity contributed to this report
