US officials say strikes carried out at three key Iranian nuclear sites have devastated the nuclear program, but independent experts analyzing the image of commercial satellites say the country’s long-term nuclear enterprise has not been destroyed.
“At the end of the day there are some really important things that have never been a hit,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury International Institute in Monterey, which tracks Iran’s nuclear facilities. “If this ends here, it’s a really incomplete strike.”
In particular, Lewis says the strike appears to have not touched Iranian stock of highly enriched uranium.
“Today, it still has that material, but we still don’t know where it is,” he says.
“This is never finished because I think we have to assume that a significant amount of this enriched uranium still exists,” agrees David Albright, chairman of the Institute of Science and International Security, who has been closely tracking Iran’s nuclear programmes for many years.
The independent review is in stark contrast to a congratulatory statement from the Trump administration following the strike.
The US military carried out an attack on Iran’s nuclear program early on Sunday, local time. The code name “Operation Midnight Hammer” contained seven B-2 spirit bombers carrying 30,000 pound bunkerbuster bombs known as large ordinance intruders.
It appears that a dozen of bombs have been used to attack Iran’s deep buried enrichment site in Ford. Additionally, two weapons were used to attack the underground centrifuge facility at Iran’s main enrichment site in Natanz.
At the same time as the bombing, US submarines fired more than 20 cruise missiles. These weapons collided with the entrance to the building and tunnel at Isfahan’s third nuclear site.
Satellite images show damaged buildings at the nuclear site of Isfahan. The site was struck by a cruise missile launched from a US submarine.
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“Iran’s nuclear ambitions have disappeared,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegses said at a Pentagon press conference on Sunday. “The operation that President Trump planned was bold and that was fantastic.”
Both Lewis and Albright say the strike itself may have been effective, but it’s certainly hard to say. The satellite image shows Ashy Debris on the majority of the site with six deep holes in the ground around Fordo. Albright believes that bunkerbusters were used to try the ventilation system at the enrichment facility and attempt to attack in the main hall where uranium-inflated centrifuges are held.
“The purpose of the attack is to get the centrifuges and infrastructure out, and they feel they’ve achieved that,” Albright said.
However, as evidence that the strike may have missed uranium stock, both Albright and Lewis point to commercial satellite imagery even before the strike. The image shows the trucks at two important sites, Isfahan and Ford. The truck appears to have sealed a tunnel that serves as an entrance to underground facilities used to store uranium, possibly in anticipation of the US attack.
Images provided by the Middlebury International Institute in Monterey show the truck at the entrance to the Ford Enrichment facility the day before the US attacked it on its site. Experts believe Iran was able to cheer up a supply of highly enriched uranium prior to the attack.
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Both experts believe that Iranians could have moved rich uranium out of the site towards a US strike.
“It appears that the tracks were seen in the image. “We’ll assume that enriched uranium stock has been carried.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency rated Iran as having more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium 235. 60% of the concentrated uranium is transported in relatively small containers that can easily fit in the car, says Albright.
Albright believes the program has effectively retreated, but he still believes it could be reconfigured.
Albright says Iran may also have thousands of uranium enriched centrifuges that were never installed in Natantz and Ford. It may be possible to move uranium to another secret facility. There, it could be enriched to the 90% required for nuclear weapons in a relatively short period of time. Still, Iran must take further steps to add uranium to its weapons.
“The program is seriously backing down, but there are a lot of odds and endings,” says Albright. Ultimately, he believes that the only way to truly end Iran’s nuclear program is through additional nuclear testing by international monitors and cooperation from the Iranian regime, perhaps through some kind of diplomatic agreement.
“Even the most amazing bombing campaign probably won’t take us where we want to be,” he says.
