RBI April 2025 Monetary Policy Preview: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is scheduled to announce the key rate decision at 10am on Wednesday, April 9th, after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded a three-day deliberation that began on Monday. All eyes are decisions regarding the repo rate of RBI, or the key rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to commercial banks. The MPC review comes when many economists are concerned about whether a new escalation in the ongoing trade war will halt GDP growth and slow down interest rate cuts in the Covid era. Learn what you can expect from the MPC Review Meeting on April 7th-9th.
April 9, 2025:
RBI Governor’s Monetary Policy Statement @govsmalhotra 10am
Live stream: (https://t.co/e2rvdkwjss))
Post Policy Press Conference at 12pm: (https://t.co/zt7kulwzc))#rbipolicy #monetarypolicy #RBI #MPC #rbitoday pic.twitter.com/lehaxwjpjn– ResirseBankofindia (@RBI) April 8, 2025
RBI MPC Preview: What do you expect from future monetary policy reviews?
All participants in the Zee Business Economist polls expect RBI to announce a cut of 25 bases in its main lending rate. They expect the FY26 rate cut, which began on April 1, will be 50 basis points.
RBI MPC Review April 2025 | Can you expect a change in your stance?
Three of the four economists who participated in the polls hope that the MPC will switch to a “adaptive” stance of policy, while others do not expect any change.
Currently, MPC is still taking a “neutral” stance. This allows you to work on both sides, adjusting policy rates based on general economic circumstances.
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Have inflation concerns eased?
In this regard, none of the poll economists offered a clear view.
Will RBI change its GDP forecast in its April review?
Economists expect RBI’s existing GDP forecasts to remain unchanged.
Currently, RBI is forecast to grow at 6.7% in 2026, 6.7% in the first quarter, 7.0% in the second quarter, 6.5% in the third quarter and 6.5% in the fourth quarter.
RBI Inflation Prediction
We forecast consumer inflation, or the rate of increase in prices paid for selected goods and services, for 4.2% in the first quarter, 4.5% in the first quarter, 4.0% in the second quarter, 3.8% in the third quarter, and 4.2% in the fourth quarter.
Three Things to Keep in mind in the MPC Review in April
According to Zee Business Research, three things will be closely tracked in the April 9 policy statement.
- Cash position
- RBI’s view on the impact of tariffs on the Indian economy
- GDP and inflation forecasts in light of trade war jitter
What happened in the MPC review
The MPC, which consists of six RBI members and three external members (each of three), has unanimously reduced its reporate to 25 bps, maintaining a “neutral” attitude, while “focusing on durable inflation with targets and supporting growth.”
RBI February Policy Minutes: Summary
The minutes of the final review of FY25, released in late February, show that policymakers hope inflation will align with the 4.0% medium-term target, creating room for addressing growth concerns.
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