The Philadelphia Eagles are their favorites for winning the Super Bowl LX, but they have a cluster of teams close to reality champions in terms of their ability and opportunity to wind up the Lombardi Trophy. This is a soccer rating and forecast model, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which launched on Wednesday of the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the model. This is the least likely that since we started outputting preseason predictions in 2015, all preseason favorites have had to win.
In the preseason, the overall predictive rating of the FPI is based primarily on the winning totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule. This is along with factors such as the difference between a team’s start and a backup quarterback, and the evaluation of special teams that incorporate a specific kicker. Using these ratings, we simulate a season thousands of times, and the results form predictions.
The rating evolves based on the performance of offensive, defense, and special teams (occupying the opponent) and the performance and changes of each team. Game predictions are also influenced by differences in home field advantage and rest. Dive into 2025 forecasts and biggest takeaways.
Jump:
Top Team | Super Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who is the last? | No.1 pick
The Eagles are the head of the NFL elite group
The 2025 Olihead of the NFL consists of distinct top tiers: the Eagles, Chief, Raven, Lion and Bills. These teams are separated by a single point of FPI rating at a maximum of 1 point. That is, it is not preferred to a single point over another point on a neutral field. However, there is a dramatic 1.8-point drop-off between the fifth-placed bill and the sixth-placed commander.
First look at the NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40x7
– Seth Walder (@sethwalder) May 27, 2025
A common theme among the top 5 teams? Aggressive strength. Yes, the “Defense Winning Championship” cliche is not reflected here. The offense is stable from game to game, season to season, so teams with the best past quarterbacks and offensive productions are more likely to repeat their success. That’s important because the point of an FPI is to look ahead rather than come back. It’s no coincidence that the top 5 teams also have five best teams. crime According to FPI, it’s a different order.
But it’s not all Attack – The defending champion Eagles also have the best defense, making them a very light appearance in the overall lead. Linebacker Zack Baun returns to pin younger talents such as defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quy Nhon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean to the center to highlight the Philadelphia defense.
All five top tier teams have at least 8% chances to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that a Super Bowl winner will be one of these five teams. No other team has more than 5% chance.
Can you watch the Eagles’ best repeats in the Super Bowl?
Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia. Is it three out of four? The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the biggest of any team combination in the Super Bowl matchup prediction, slightly outperforming the Ravens’ Aegle and Bills Aguls’ matchup matchups. List the top combinations below and round them to the nearest integer.
Looking at the top 10 most likely Super Bowl combinations, several different NFC teams will appear in the list. The Eagles and Lions appear most, while the Commander, Rams and 49ers each appeared in one of the most likely combinations. The AFC side of the matchup was dominated by three teams: Chief, Bill and Raven.
Who is your favorite NFC North loaded?
That’s not a big surprise, but all NFC North teams rank in the top half of the FPI rating. Detroit leads with No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), the Vikings (No. 15) and the Bears (No. 16).
If there’s a curveball, Minnesota ranks 15th after 14-3 in 2024. However, the Vikings relied on last season’s defense while ranking mediocre 15th in offensive last season. And while Brian Flores remains as a defensive coordinator, defensive success is difficult to replicate.
Additionally, second-year quarterback JJ McCarthy is unknown after missing out on rookie season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. He may be upside down from last year’s starter Sam Darnold, but McCarthy’s downside is almost certainly lower. Therefore, FPI only gives Minnesota a 19% chance to win the division and a 43% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the bear moved in the opposite direction. After Chicago finished 24th in total efficiency (EPA per play adjusted to garbage time), FPI considers it to be a team that will minimize the average entering 2025. The reason for optimism is clear. The Bears brought in new coach Ben Johnson and added key talent to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL experience – even if that experience is unstable.
So who will come out first? The Lions won the Division with 41% shots, with the Packers recording 25%. But even bears are 15%, so they all have a chance.
Can the 49ers bounce back and beat NFC West?
FPI has the Rams narrowly as the best team in NFC West. But what is your favorite to win the division? it isvery narrowly) he was the 49ers and shot 36% of the Rams.
Why is there a contradiction? The strength of the schedule. No team will enter 2025 with a slate that is easier than the 49ers. The 49ers not only faced like other divisions with the NFC South and AFC South, but also became the Giants, Brown and Bears because they last finished in the division in 2024.
It’s enough to give San Francisco the advantage of Los Angeles in projection. It also shows the FPI’s belief in the 49ers bouncing off after the cruelly disappointing 6-11 campaign. A large part of that faith is a betting market that the 49ers believe were hampered by the injury to a major player last season.
Can any of the other AFC East teams try their billing?
They are I did itbut there is no particular possibility. Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and is considered a favorite of four or more points over each of the other three in neutral fields. The bill also has a 65% chance of winning a division. This is the best with a big margin of any NFL team.
Of course, it leaves more than one chance someone else can beat AFC East. It is mainly due to football uncertainty – the FPI may be overestimating the bill or underestimating someone else. Or you can get lucky in the division title, even though one of the other teams isn’t as good as Buffalo as a whole.
But that variance is always there. In the meantime, the bill is in just as good a position to win their division once again.
Will Bengal return to the playoffs?
probably! Cincinnati’s 2024 campaign was disappointing in the regular season despite quarterback Joe Barrow being ranked third in QBR, the best performance of his career. However, the defense pulled the Bengals back. They ranked 23rd in the allowed EPA per play, and were ranked 30th in their struggles with runs, particularly for defending rushing plays in the EPA.
However, the lack of yearly continuity that occurs with good defense also occurs in weaker units. Cincinnati replaced defensive coordinator Lou Analmo with Al Golden this offseason, increasing the uncertainty of FPI on that side of the ball. Ultimately, this model predicts that Bengal has an average defense, which moves to 7th place in the overall ranking.
Raven is the most likely AFC North Champion with 54%, while Bengali is 29%. However, Cincinnati has a 60% chance of reaching the playoffs. This has made him the fourth most famous playoff team in the AFC after missing the postseason in the last two seasons.
Who will rank last?
FPI’s 32nd place team is not the Titans, Browns or Giants. After the sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derekker, it is the saint who finds himself at the bottom of the rankings. His retirement forces New Orleans to resort to second-time rookie Tyler Schaff or quarterback second-year player Spencer Ruttler, forbidden another move. All rookie quarterbacks are considered negative in FPI, but second rounders like Shough, whom the model estimates to start, are considered a bit worse than the Cameron Ward, which Tennessee chose on the No. 1 pick.
The good news for the saint is that FPI doesn’t think much of the Southern NFC. Only Buccaneers have a positive FPI rating (ranked 14th). The Falcons and Panthers rank 26th and 28th respectively. Partly due to the very weak division, all four NFC South teams ranked bottom sixth in schedule strength, boosting each prediction of victory. As a result, the Saints have the fourth best chance at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft despite FPI’s last rankings.
Is Cleveland a watch?
The Browns are the team most likely to end the season when they scored the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Much of this comes from a quarterback room consisting of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a more difficult than average schedule.
The Giants are rated slightly above the FPI’s Browns and have the second-highest chance to score the first pick at 12% as they face the most difficult schedule in the league. Titan, Saint and Jet continue with 11%, 10% and 10% chances, respectively.
