politics
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September 30, 2024
For Republican candidates, stirring up the right wing is more important than alienating others.
A seasoned opportunist who rose from genuine poverty to the brink of the White House through pure ambition, J.D. Vance has spent his life ingratiating himself with those in power. He ranged from professors at elite educational institutions to military commanders, Wall Street employers, anti-Trump centrists, Hollywood moguls, Silicon Valley plutocrats, and finally Donald Trump and MAGA. It has had remarkable success in pleasing centers of influence from all walks of life. The movement itself. Cynics might say that Vance is the ultimate apple polisher, always having something to say that he thinks others want to hear, even if it contradicts his previous statements. No.
as me nation My colleague Chris Lehman astutely observed that Vance first promoted himself with his best-selling book. hilly billy elegy (2016), he served liberal media elites as a local informant of the reality of the white working class, a refugee from Appalachia who could explain all the depraved people who voted for Trump. In this incarnation, Vance combines self-help (other hillbillies were content with studying hard, avoiding drugs, and perhaps attending an Ivy League school) with warnings against Trump’s dangerous demagoguery. I suggested. It was a message aimed at pleasing centrist and liberal elites who want to keep President Trump out of power but don’t want to drastically change the economic order.
But once it became clear that Trump had remade the Republican Party in his image, Vance wisely realized he had to embrace the man he had once compared to Hitler. As before, Vance applied his fine technique to insincere flattery. He began repeating far-right claims such as: Expressing doubts about compulsory vaccination. This attracted the attention of Trump, who endorsed him as a Republican candidate for the Senate in Ohio in 2022, and ultimately promoted Vance to his running mate.
Since becoming Trump’s sidekick, Vance has relished the role of MAGA enforcer and has been as inflammatory as Trump. It was Vance who pushed it The racist lie that Haitian immigrants eat dogs and cats has become nationally famous. Recently, Vance accepted Christian nationalists It’s an event like Lance Wallnau’s, which Vance attended on Saturday. Mr. Wallnow, an avowed theocracy, described Ms. Harris as a “Jezebel” with demonic support.
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But Vance realized that even though his skill at pleasing the targets of his ambitions was supreme, remaining obsessed was also a good way to become more widely unpopular. After all, no one likes someone who polishes apples. Reinventing yourself to please others is a good way to gain distrust.
In an era of negative polarization, it’s easy to hate politicians, but Vance is good at it. Of the four major candidates vying for this year’s national ticket, Vance is the most unpopular, even more so than his running mate. According to FiveThirtyEight’s vote tally, Vance be viewed favorably 34.7% of voters supported it, and 45.7% had an unfavorable rating, resulting in a negative rating of 11%. In contrast, President Trump numbers 42.9% are favorable and 52.6% are unfavorable (net minus 9.6). kamala harris’ numbers The favorable rate is 45.4 percent and the unfavorable rate is 47.1 percent (net minus 1.7). Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, is the only national figure receiving positive support. his numbers The favorable percentage is 40.1%, while the unfavorable percentage is 36.4% (net positive 3.7%).
Vance’s numbers get even worse when you look at the specific demographic he seems to appeal to the most. The 40-year-old would be a youthful opponent to Trump, with the ability to attract younger MAGA supporters. But among most young people, Vance has the opposite effect. Among voters ages 18 to 30, Vance was rated favorably by 18% and unfavorably by 46%, according to the Harvard Youth Poll released Tuesday (-28%). The poll found Trump slightly more unpopular (net minus 30), while Harris had a net plus of 2 and Walz had a net plus of 14.
Saturday, new york times reported:
In three Midwestern states, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, is viewed more favorably than his Republican counterpart, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. New York Times/Siena College Poll.
The poll, conducted as the two men prepared to face off in Tuesday’s debate, found that 44% of likely voters in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin viewed Walz favorably. It was found that 41% viewed the situation unfavorably. The poll found that Mr. Vance was viewed favorably by 42% of likely voters in those states and unfavorably by 48%.
Even in Ohio, Walz’s approval rating is 1 percentage point higher than Vance’s.
The Trump campaign will argue that these dire numbers are irrelevant. The theory is that Mr. Vance is strategic about intentionally polarizing voters. He has energized the Republican base by raising high-profile issues, and if he connects with moderate Republicans who dislike Democrats, he could give Trump and Vance a serious blow to the White House. That’s going to happen. As one of President Trump’s advisors said CNN: “He’s an attack dog. That’s part of the reason he was called up, that’s what he does best.”
Republican strategist Josh Holmes echoed this assertion. tell new york times“The Republican ticket needed a younger voice that could connect with the younger male demographic of the base. We’re talking about Trump fans between the ages of 25 and 50. Vance gets along great with them.”
It would be foolish to dismiss this argument out of hand. This kind of polarization by an unpopular candidate is exactly how Trump won in 2016. But the big advantage Republicans had in 2016 was The intense hatred of millions of Americans Hillary Clinton has been a major villain in right-wing propaganda, fueled by decades of culture wars as a champion and champion of her husband’s most unpopular policies, such as free trade.
In 2024, Kamala Harris is at worst moderately disliked, while Tim Walz actually enjoys net support. It’s a very different environment.
This time, the Trump/Vance campaign is betting that more voters will be attracted to Vance’s culture war bigotry than are disgusted moderates. Conversely, the Harris/Waltz camp is also making a bet that Americans are ready to move on from the culture wars. While Harris was there, currently in a good position to winthe race is coming up and we need to pause. Vance has grown a lot by being kind to others. This year, he might take another leap forward by being mean.
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