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The author is Director of Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Israeli attack, carried out in the early hours of October 26, had been expected since a major Iranian ballistic missile attack on October 1. The exact timing and which targets the Israeli leadership would choose were unclear. It will take several days for the full extent of the damage to become clear, but this much is clear. Although the attack was intentionally limited in scope, it still had a significant impact.
Weeks of uncertainty over Israel’s target selection have left everyone on edge, from the White House to Arab corridors of power, financial markets and Gulf expatriates, fearful of the possibility of escalation to the conflict. . The top level included leadership sites, nuclear facilities, and energy facilities. The middle range of options included military facilities such as air defense systems and factories producing missiles and drones.
Targeting the former would risk all-out war, which no country wanted. Choosing the latter was a way to tell Iran whether to return or not.
As it stands, Israel is once again proving its military superiority over its ultimate rival. It remains the only major power in the region capable of accomplishing this kind of thing. In fact, most European armies would have a hard time matching this feat. Some in Israel, including opposition leader Yair Lapid, say the scale of the attack was a mistake and that Israelis should have hit Iran harder.
A key consideration for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the US presidential election. The Biden administration and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are hoping to avoid a major war that would further fuel their own party’s discontent with less than two weeks to go before the vote. However, no matter who wins on November 5, the period leading up to the new president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025 will be a period of greatest danger for the US administration and the region.
The Biden administration will argue that its advice placed constraints on Israel. The country had already believed that the assassinations of Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah would have a decisive impact on the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, and that the attack could lead to direct exchanges between Israel and Iran. It states that it should become the “end” of the However, that turned out to be wishful thinking on the American side.
Iran, whose supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei signaled a cautious response on Sunday, faces a deepening dilemma. Either stand back and appear weak, inviting further attacks, or retaliate and risk complete defeat. Loss of air defense capability leaves it vulnerable to further attacks. The destruction of missile production sites suggests that Israel will not be able to quickly replenish its offensive weapons to continue fighting while receiving more defense and interceptor systems from the United States and other countries.
Iran’s problems will become even more serious. Two of the three pillars of the country’s security strategy are being shaken. The battered militias in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria can no longer deter and punish Israel. Rebuilding will take decades and may even be impossible. Weapons such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones have not had the military impact expected. In the future, we will need to replenish this and develop better technology. The final pillar of its strategy, its nuclear program, is more vulnerable than ever, and its rush to build a bomb could spark the very war it was trying to avoid.
Iran’s options for retaliation are narrowing. As a result, they could target less well-protected targets, such as U.S. facilities and interests in the Gulf. Rising unrest in the region is why Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others were quick to condemn Israel’s attack and offer a diplomatic withdrawal.
Ultimately, Israel remains in control of the escalation and may decide to impose its advantage. Currently, Prime Minister Netanyahu is the only Middle East leader who is getting his way while watching other countries, including the United States, make concessions and adjustments.
Israeli officials believe that Israel’s operational capabilities and battlefield successes will overcome the political and moral concerns that Americans, Europeans, and Arabs have regarding the conduct of these wars. Prime Minister Netanyahu was certainly pleased when President Donald Trump told him to “do what you have to do” in a recent phone call. His defense planners are likely considering more ideas. But like Iranians, Netanyahu should be wary of the temptation of hubris.
