Fantasy football is a passion for many people. That passion can prompt fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Rosa will try to balance what the data says with what the heart desires. This is called facts and feelings.
Oh hello. Are you still here? I didn’t expect you to come again this week. It’s a collection of strange days and aftermath situations to sift through. So much so that I have a hard time identifying the topic of the intro. Inspiration usually comes long before Tuesday morning. On Tuesday mornings I traditionally sit down and type out the facts that are running through my head and the accompanying feelings that are nagging close to my heart.
I don’t want to talk about New Year’s resolutions. On top of that, we took a side-eye at their predictable overuse in last week’s column. I also don’t feel the need to have the conversation, “When are you going to take down the Christmas tree?” This shouldn’t be discussed. your tree. It’s your choice. Personally, I like to pack up all my kitschy holiday stuff as soon as possible and store it in the attic. But if you like plastic icicles or dry pine needles, go for it.
That’s been kind of the conceit of this piece all season. You do. Please be my guest. Now, let’s fly that abnormal flag. If you’re still playing fantasy in Week 18, that’s probably a philosophy you’ve already adopted. Just kidding, hey. Not throwing shade. I’m a big fan of the seemingly risky reversal of trying to live the stream as hard as I can for players who are still suiting up as free agents at the expense of their most productive players on championship weekend. I am deeply grateful for the wonderful gathering of people. It’s an Icarus-class flight to the sun, and I’m here for it.
I guess that’s the focus of this column: What is the thrill of stepping into unknown territory? After all, no one likes risk more than fantasy football fanatics. Basically we’re all like Tom Cruise trying to do another “Mission: Impossible” while continuing to do his own stunts. Actually, I don’t look like Tom Cruise at all (aside from maybe being vertically disabled), but I respect you (and him) for staying fit and chasing adrenaline. represents. If ever the virtual game marked a “go big or go home” moment, it was Week 18.
Talk about avoiding pitfalls. This Saturday and Sunday, all of football will collide in a big way. Hearts and minds are never more at odds than when real postseason hopes and a virtual Super Bowl are at stake at the same time.
Imagine starting Bucky Irving in a Bejan Robinson jersey. Or maybe you live in Cincinnati and hope Pat Freiermuth can take advantage of the Ultra Plus matchup. Or are you a die-hard Eagles fan who gleefully relied on Saquon Barkley all year and ultimately watched him rest in a historic revenge game? Let’s talk about facts and feelings. Just typing about dark and twisted possibilities makes me feel warm.
So let’s get this damn thing done (or until busyness at work necessitates a “Facts and Emotions: Year in Review Edition”, which will definitely be done by February…probably 3 It’s going to be a moon. Enjoy it all. And the goosebumps.
Once again, to the breakthrough…and each to be their own!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield, QB: Few people have taken the road less traveled than Mayfield. The 29-year-old is clearly determined for 2024 to silence haters who see his 2023 success as a fluke, as he vastly outperformed last season’s results. Mayfield currently ranks third at the quarterback position with 4,279 passing yards (behind Joe Burrow and Jared Goff) and third among QBs with 42 total touchdowns (behind Burrow’s 44 and Lamar Jackson’s 43). It becomes. Remarkably, the Bucs’ quarterback has thrown a league-high 67 TD passes over the past two seasons.
Currently, as an overall QB5 in virtual games, Mayfield is averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game. He had nine games with 22 or more fantasy points (bested only by Jackson) and was the top-two producer at his position with five games (tied for most in the NFL). That’s not bad for a player who entered late August with an overall ADP of 173 and was selected in just 32% of the league.
There are several ways for the Bucks to extend their season, but a win against the New Orleans Saints would be the easiest and most advantageous. Mayfield shows no signs of slowing down and will likely come out strong to win the NFC South. New Orleans’ defense has struggled to limit big plays through the air, tying the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams for passes of 20 yards or more with 53 (53). They are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions for the fourth-most passes. Anything over 40 yards (10) is allowed. This works well for players who seem content with the prospect of defeating underdogs while regularly dominating in their place.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins: The Tyreek Hill experience is never boring. That is unlikely to change in Week 18. The Cheetahs are coming off the season’s second-highest catch total (9 yards) and third-highest receiving total (105 yards), but the path to Week 18’s fantasy dominance is not without its struggles. isn’t it. The big question is whether Tua Tagovailoa, who missed Week 17 with a hip issue, will be available.
Last Sunday, Tyler Huntley replaced Tagovailoa and had a great performance, outscoring the Browns and keeping the Fins in the playoffs. While the former Baltimore Ravens backup was successful in locking Hill in, it’s worth noting that Hill has yet to catch a touchdown pass from any Miami quarterback other than Tua.
The matchup against the New York Jets is even more uncertain. On the one hand, Hill had his best fantasy performance of 2024 in Week 14 against New York (28 FPTS). Meanwhile, the Rams and Buffalo Bills recorded just 18 and 29 pass attempts, respectively, against Gang Green’s defense. A lopsided situation for the past two weeks. If New York’s defense crumbles early, Hill will need a TD to complete the fantasy show. However, considering the spread is 1.5 points, there is a good chance that there will be a fierce battle.
Also working in Hill’s favor is the fact that five WRs have cleared 20 fantasy points (including three this month) when playing against the Jets. It’s best for managers to prepare for WR2 numbers, but there’s also hope for Hill to show WR1 fantasy in a high-stakes scenario for the Fins on Sunday.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers: If you’re looking to the future, Coker is the answer. But the future may already have begun. Adam Thielen has arguably emerged as Carolina’s most reliable (and productive) slot option. Additionally, Xavier Leggett continues to turn heads, collecting nine eyebrow-raising looks in Week 17. However, Coker ranks seventh among WRs in yards per target (10.7) and eighth in yards per reception (16.6). Realized as Bryce Young’s favorite downfield weapon.
Just as Alec Pearce was a hot boom option last week (which worked out pretty well), consider Coker to be a major upside factor this go-around. The Panthers play for pride and practice, both of which can only benefit this young team. Carolina thinks it can get a lot of both in Atlanta.
The Falcons have allowed 24 WRs to reach at least 10 fantasy points. Additionally, the Dirty Birds’ defense has allowed double-digit fantasy points to two wideouts in seven separate games, including Week 6 vs. Carolina. Additionally, the Falcons had the highest catch percentage allowed to a WR (70%) and the most receiving scores allowed to the position (21). Coker’s cap numbers will be utilized as Young looks to end his sophomore campaign with a heroic record (+8). Make him flexible for fun.
Jalen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Injuries and QB changes hampered Warren’s start to the season. But once he was healthy and Russell Wilson was firmly established under center, the 26-year-old began to regain momentum. In fact, Warren has cleared nine fantasy points in every game since the team’s Week 9 bye (with the exception of Pittsburgh’s stinker at Philadelphia in Week 15). Warren has 16 more touches in his second consecutive effort, including exactly five grabs in two straight games, and his backfield presence continues to blossom into a double-digit week.
The Steelers have already clinched a playoff spot, but a win against the Bengals (and a loss to the Ravens) would clinch first place in the AFC North. It would make sense, then, for Pittsburgh to attack Cincinnati’s biggest weakness. Therefore, the Bengals are allowing a whopping 89% catch rate to opposing running backs. For context, in Week 16, Jerome Ford caught 5 of 5 balls for 39 receiving yards, and in Week 15, Tyjay Spears completed 6 of 7 looks for 87 receiving yards and 1. Recorded the score.
Looking at Warren’s role as the preferred pass catcher in the backfield (12.6% target share, RB9), the former Oklahoma State product (via Utah State) will get five more grabs in Week 18. It is expected that In what is expected to be a close game (Steelers +1.5), Warren should see a lot of action while putting up respectable numbers at RB2 in a PPR-friendly format.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons: Let’s talk about living on the edge. Pitts Coaster™ is designed to simulate an exhilarating and shocking never-ending loop of reality. For example, the controversial tight end posted an impressive 14.4 fantasy points (TE10) in Week 17. But over the past five games, he has scored a suboptimal 12.8 fantasy points. combined. And so it will be.
In Week 15, we discussed Pitts’ tank stock and focused on Kirk Cousins’ contribution to the collapse. Obviously, there have been changes under center since then, and the complexion of the offense has changed as well. Michael Penix Jr. appears to have targeted Drake Rondon a total of 21 times since taking over as a starter two games ago. But outside of London, the rookie QB seems content to spread the ball around. In fact, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson, and Pitts ranked second on the team in looks in Week 17, drawing five chances each.
The sample size may be small, but Pitts should remain one of the favorites to take on Penix in Week 18. Carolina has struggled to contain tight ends this season, allowing a league-high 11 points to the position. Meanwhile, the Falcons have re-prioritized Pitts as an end zone threat, targeting the tight end from 10 yards out in three of the last four games. Pitts’ amount of predictability (or lack thereof) makes him a shaky start. But you can’t deny the appeal of his matchup. This season, Carolina’s defense has allowed 10 different tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points, including Payne Durham (11.6 points) in Week 17 and Pitts himself in Week 6. After riding the waves for this long, why not take it easy for a while? One last hurrah?
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