Election prediction market favors Trump with 2/3 odds despite toss-up polls : NPR

Election gambling ads were shown on screen during conservative media company Right Side Broadcasting Network’s coverage of former President Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend.

As President Trump spoke on stage, Kalsi’s ad read, “Bet on the US election.” “Bet $100 on Trump and win $175.”

more Days after Election Day, $100 million was legally bet on the presidential election on the platform. Legal gambling explosion comes after federal appeals court earlier this month Online gambling company KalshiEX LLC has been given permission to open an election prediction market.

The company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, told NPR that his election market gave Trump a 63% chance of winning as of Tuesday. — This is a “truth mechanism” that helps ordinary people avoid unpredictable political risks. But critics like Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) call the legal decision a “big mistake” that undermines American democracy.

Mr. Carsi is still battling federal regulators in court. But retail investment platform Robinhood also began offering bets on election contracts this week. This leaves Americans free to place tens of millions of legal election bets with little knowledge of how it will affect the closest and most contentious presidential election in decades. I can do that.

Betting on the US election

Betting on US presidential elections is nothing new. In the early 20th century, betting on presidential candidates was common. The New York City Gaming Commissioner controlled these markets at a location called the New York Curb Exchange.

Keith Romer, a former NPR gambling correspondent and current editor, says that in the days before scientific political polling, not only were bets made, but the markets were fairly accurate.

“Of the 15 presidential elections from 1884 to 1940, gambling markets correctly called the race in 11 of them,” Romer told NPR’s Planet Money. “It’s too close to call three people. And they only got one wrong.”

Romer said major newspapers like the New York Times will publish betting odds as a source of information. However, in the late 20th century, with the advent of scientific opinion polls and numerous prohibitive gambling laws, election gambling fell out of favor.

In recent years, prediction markets have brought back election gambling. On social media platform He frequently posts betting odds.

To date, $2.5 billion has been bet on the presidential election on Polymarket, giving the former president a 66% chance of winning.

Mr. Kalsi provides Americans with a legal platform for betting for the first time, and CEO and co-founder Mr. Mansour claims this provides voters with accurate information as opposed to political polls.

Rajiv Sethi, a professor of economics at Barnard College who has studied these markets for years, said that while “the jury is still out” on whether prediction markets are better than traditional political polls, the conclusion is close. said.

“It actually produces output that is pretty competitive with the best models,” Sethi says.

Does it affect election results?

Chief Executive Officer Mansour said his goal is to create creative financial tools that can be used to hedge risks for the “high net worth” at investment banks such as his former employer, Goldman Sachs. He said the goal is to expand election gambling to the general public.

He cited the example of environmental companies protecting themselves from the election of candidates who propose cuts to climate change efforts.

“People can now do something about it,” Mansour said. “They can reduce exposure and instability to events that are really out of their control.”

In response to a question about malicious gambling aimed at unfairly inflating the odds for a particular candidate, Mansour said electoral markets are “self-serving” because bettors will have the opportunity to make money on inflated results. He said it was being corrected.

“Essentially the only result is that the people who tried to manipulate it in the first place lost a lot of money,” Mansour said at a time when Khalsi’s odds mirrored those in the polls. said in an interview.

Mansour acknowledged that election gambling is not a risk-free proposition, but said Kalsi is federally regulated, meaning regulators could intervene if someone tries to manipulate the market. Ta.

“Everything is very transparent, everyone can see everything you do, they can see your name, your address, what you’re doing, and the government is watching,” Mansour said. spoke. “It feels like a pretty bad place to try to do these things.”

Professor Bernard’s Seti is He generally agrees, citing a 2012 case in which an anonymous person bet $7 million to improve then-Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s chances of winning, only to lose when other gamblers took advantage of it. did. But Sethi said there was still a possibility of manipulation.

“Beliefs about whether a candidate is viable, doing well, and likely to win can influence fundraising, support, enthusiasm, volunteering, etc.,” Sethi said. Ta. “These things can actually affect the actual outcome of the election.”

Supporters of Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris wait for her speech in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday at The Ellipse, just south of the White House. more The first legal election betting platform in the United States in years saw $100 million legally wagered on the presidential election.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

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Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“Big mistake.”

A week after Election Day, the Harris market favors Trump by more than 30 percentage points, but most political polls show Harris and Trump in a statistical tie. This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy of these markets.

Oregon State Senator Merkley Kalsi opposed it from the beginning and suggested it. invoice Congress bans all election gambling.

“Allowing election gambling is a big mistake,” Merkley told NPR. “It turns elections from a place to exercise your principles to a place to use your wallet. It corrupts American elections.”

Merkley said that beyond the moral challenge, it is prohibited by law. he says it’s against regulations 40.11 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission prohibits trading related to “terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or any activity illegal under state or federal law.” The CFTC is fighting Mr. Carsi in court.

“The game is betting on the outcome of the contest,” Merkley said. “An election is a contest. This is not a commodity. This is not oil. This is not silver.”

Qarsi’s Mansour said he was aware that election gambling carries a stigma of corruption, but insisted the criticism was unfounded.

“We fought for these markets not because we thought the integrity of the election would be threatened,” Mansour said. “On the contrary, we think they are facilitating it.”