SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China’s ethane imports from the US will fight this year as big petrochemical producers switch to cheap feed flowing from the US shale gas boom despite growing trade war between Washington and Beijing Therefore, it is expected to increase dramatically.
Companies such as Satellite Chemical, China Sanjiang Fine Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical Group have invested over $16 billion to build crackers, upgrade plants, expand storage and build extremely large ethane carriers.になったんです。 English: The first thing you can do is to find the best one to do. Liquefied gas is shipped.
The US export capacity and shortage of tankers are two factors that hinder the growth of ethane trade between the two largest economies in the world. Almost all of China’s ethane imports come from the US
The forecast from three analysts for China’s ethane imports in 2025 ranges from 6.3 million to 8.2 million metric tonnes, estimated to be an increase of 9% to 34%. There is no official published data regarding the import of ethane.
To meet rising export demand, US pipeline network operators’ energy transfer and enterprise product partners are expanding capacity at terminals.
“The bottleneck is now US exports,” said Arman Ashraf, director of natural gas liquids at consultant FGE.
China buys almost half of US ethane exports, according to the US Energy Information Agency. This is expected to increase US net ethane exports from 6% per day to 520,000 barrels (11.2 million tons) in 2025, according to an October report. China is expected to make up a large part of that increase, EIA analysts said.
In competition with China, Thailand plans to buy more US ethane to reduce the trade deficit with the US, but Siam Cement Group has restructured Vietnam’s new long son Cracker to make it even more It uses inexpensive ingredients. Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemicals, the region’s largest naphtha importer, is studying US ethane imports for crackers, its spokesman Ky Lin told Reuters.
Increased demand and constrained export capacity will bring a tight ethane market from 2026, said Wang Yan, ICIS analyst at Commodities Intelligence Firm.
New crackers and ships
Between 2024 and 2026, Chinese companies are planning to add at least 7.7 million tonnes of TPY per year (TPY) of capacity to process ethane and other gas liquids, and the company’s filings use cheaper raw materials. Because you’re trying to do it.
They need to make a switch to improve their returns. Chinese crackers can treat ethane, breaking the profit margins of plants processing naphtha and cutting between $300-500 per tonne of ethylene.
Sanjiang Chemical said in his first half of 2024 financial report that the mixed feed cracker startup reduced costs for the fifth time and turned the production of loss-making ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol for profit .
In addition to upgrading the plant, new delivery capabilities are required. According to Ashraf, at least six dedicated VLECs must ship raw materials for every million tonnes per year with crack capacity.
The VLEC will cost between $160 million and $170 million and will take three years to build, said a Japanese IINO line executive. The operator leased the first two VLECs to be completed this year to our UK group INEO and sent the ethane to China.
Wanhua Chemical, with three VLECs, has added two or three more tankers by the end of the year, and sources familiar with the issue that refused to be named because they were not allowed to talk to the media. I stated.
“The main constraint is shipping,” he said. This is because Chinese shipyards will be fully booked for the next few years.
He estimates there will be 29 VLECs in the service and hopes that growth in China’s demand will track new ships.
“There’s a lot of demand, but a lot of ships are coming too. And there’s a political issue between the US and China, as the main importers will be China and the exporter (US). So we That’s what you need to be aware of.” Iino Kaiun Kaisha’s LNG team said in an email response to Reuters.
However, some analysts and CEO of Enterprises Jim Teague is affected by tart tariffs between Beijing and Washington, as China prefers to keep raw materials cheap to support the industry. It’s below the possibility.
“The whole segment hasn’t been doing very well. When it comes to war trade, there are always other sectors that can be tapped down,” said FGE’s Ashraf.
China reduced ethane import duties in 2025 to 1% from 2% in 2024.
Teague said Chinese propane and ethane users rely on imports. “So from an NGL perspective, I’m not worried,” he told analysts on February 4, referring to natural gas fluids.
In preparation for the surge, Enterprise plans to open a terminal in Orange County, Texas later this year to export 120,000 bpd of ethane, aiming to expand it in 2026.
Energy Transfer said it will add a natural gas liquid export capacity of 250,000 bpd to Naderland, Texas, starting in the third quarter of 2025.
Its co-chief executive officer, Marshall McCree, said in a revenue call in November:
($1 = 7.2751 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
(Reporting by Siyi Liu, Florence Tan and Gabrielle Ng of Singapore, Arathy Somasekhar of Houston; Additional reporting by Georgina McCartney of Houston; Editing by Tony Munroe and Sonali Paul)
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