Beyond encryption: Why quantum computing might be more of a science boom than a cybersecurity bust

Last August, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released its first three.Square Encryption Standard“It is designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers. For many years, encryption experts have been worried that the advent of quantum computing can spell Doom for traditional methods of encryption.

But is Quantum Computing considered a threat to encryption? It’s true that Quantum Computers can break traditional encryption faster and easier, but it’s still a long way from the “more secret” decryption box imagined in the 1992 film sneakers. With energy demand and computing power still limiting factors, people with access to quantum computers may be considering better use of technology elsewhere, such as science, medicine, healthcare and more.

Do you remember the theory of electron microscopy?

I have spent a lot of time in digital forensics, and it has given me a unique perspective on the challenges of quantum computing. In 1996, Peter Gutman published a white paper, “Safely Deletion of Data from Magnetic and Solid State Memory,” which theorized that electron microscopes could be used to recover deleted data from hard drives. Was this possible? Maybe – but in the end, this process will be very tedious, resource intensive and unreliable. More importantly, it wasn’t long before a hard drive stored information in such a dense way that even an electron microscope would have no hope of recovering deleted data.

In fact, there is little evidence that such electron microscopes have been used to that purpose. Latest tests have been confirmed This method is neither practical nor reliable. But the fear was realistic. And that led to the US Department of Defense (DOD) issue the well-known “7-pass wipe” data erasure method, eliminating forensic evidence that electrical microscopes can theoretically detect. Should we take such additional precautions on sensitive or classified data? of course. But the threat was not as disastrous as it was made. When it comes to quantum computing, it could be on a similar path.

The practical reality of quantum computing

First, it is important to understand how quantum computing works. Despite the way the film likes to portray hackers, it’s not a magic wand that immediately ends encryption, as we know it. It still needs to be tasked with supplying individual messages and breaking the encryption. This means that an attacker must have a pretty good idea of ​​which messages contain valuable information. That may sound simple, but more 300 billion emails It is sent with trillions of texts every day. There are ways to narrow the scope of the search, but even so, attackers need to throw so much computing power into the issue.

It leads me to a real problem: computing power is not infinite. Quantum Computing is at the forefront of technology. This means that the average script Kiddie or Hacker Collective can’t get it. The only players with access to quantum computers (and the energy needed to run them) are large companies such as Google, Microsoft, and AI Companies. Simply put, quantum computing can be expensive at first and doesn’t come to the market as quickly as many people have given their opinions. In other words, nation-states have only a large amount of computing power to use at their own freedom. The problem is: Is breaking down the encryption protocol something they are planning to spend on it?

True Use Cases for Quantum

The answer is strong… Probably. For me, the real benefits of quantum are resting in research, economic competition and global impact. That doesn’t mean that if an adversarial nation-state gets what they know is good, quantum computers can’t be put in to use crack encryption, but that’s not the main way technology is used. Look at it like this: If you are a foreign power that has access to the most advanced computer models on the planet, what would you use them for? Do you chase wild geese through millions of encrypted communications, or will you devote your important time, energy and calculations to cure cancer, eradicate dementia, and create advanced new materials? For me, it’s easy. Individual attackers could be after short-term benefits, but the country would think more long-term.

Quantum computing could be driven Important breakthrough In the development of new materials and catalysts, it leads to the creation of stronger and lighter composites for manufacturing and more reactive catalysts for chemical processes. That alone could revolutionize multiple industries, offering far greater long-term benefits to countries deploying technology. Quantum computing is also promising in the pharmaceutical industry, helping researchers develop More effective medicines Other treatments at other times. Technology is even used to enhance Space travel features By enabling faster trajectory calculations, making navigation more accurate and optimizing fuel usage.

It comes down to cost-benefit analysis. Only nation-states and large corporations will soon have access to quantum computing. And will they actually spend as much computing power cracking encryption algorithms as they can instead boost economic production and dominate financial markets? This does not mean that all use cases of quantum computing are good. With the wrong hand, it can certainly be used in a dangerous way. But some have a very focus on what is called “Quantum Apocalypse,” while others believe it will be approaching.

Are you breaking encryption for a list of quantum computing use cases? yes. But that’s not high on the list. So, it may be time to spend billions of dollars and take a deep breath and consider how quantum computing is actually used before ripping and replacing all the encryption algorithms in use.

Rob Lee is the head of research; Sans Institute.