Since Russia invaded his country three years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has faced military attacks on his capital, assassination plots, corruption scandals within his government, political infighting, and an eerie threat to the military’s fight against Russia. I have overcome setbacks.
He got through every time with enough support from the Ukrainians.
Now that Donald J. Trump is in the White House, Zelensky faces new challenges. It is about maintaining good relations with the country’s most important ally, a president who despises him and is skeptical about military aid.
Trump’s inauguration comes at a volatile time domestically for Zelensky. His popularity skyrocketed in the early days of the war, with an approval rating of around 90 percent, but has now fallen sharply. His approval rating has fallen to nearly 50% in the latest opinion polls, and it is even lower in surveys measuring support for his potential rivals if elections are held after a ceasefire with Russia.
Now, a new problem has emerged for Zelensky. It is a resurgence of political opposition in Ukraine, galvanized by the ceasefire and the prospect of elections that will soon follow. Opponents are also emboldened by the barrage of fire directed at Zelenskiy by Trump and his allies.
Two of Zelenskiy’s opponents in Ukraine’s 2019 election, former President Petro O. Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, reached out to members of Trump’s team. Tymoshenko traveled to Washington on Monday to attend several inaugural events.
Zelenskiy did not attend the ceremony. He had said he would only go to Washington if invited by Trump.
“He believes in a one-man show, but it won’t work,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the opposition European Solidarity Parliament, said of Zelenskyy’s role as the face of Ukraine’s resistance after Russia’s 2022 invasion. More pluralism would help the war effort, he said in an interview: “We are not Russia.”
Zelenskiy encouraged his people and allies throughout the war with nightly videos and frequent trips abroad. But beyond that, Goncharenko said, he has confined himself to an increasingly tight circle of loyal entourage, limiting his contact with opposition figures and routinely ignoring their advice. said. He added that the more active opposition now on the rise will help the war effort.
Indeed, election experts say no vote is scheduled or even possible in Ukraine while the war rages on and the country is under martial law. Russia could disrupt the vote with a salvo of missiles. Millions of Ukrainians, including soldiers in combat, European refugees, and people living under occupation, will be at risk of being disenfranchised. Therefore, Ukrainians are fighting for democracy, but they cannot put it into practice.
Still, opposition figures are not unaware of how the war’s setbacks have eroded Mr. Zelensky’s popularity. Under the constitution, elections must be held after martial law is lifted. Congress first imposed martial law in February 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion, and extended it through regular votes.
By some measures, Mr. Zelenskiy remains supported by a majority of Ukrainians (albeit at a lower approval rating), with 52% in a poll conducted in December by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. He says he still trusts the president.
But polls more focused on a hypothetical presidential election show that Zelensky is trailing former military commander Valery Zarzhny, who was fired by the president as part of a overhaul of the military command and is now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. It has been shown that
A survey conducted by the leading legal initiative polling organization showed that Mr. Zarzhini won with 24% of the vote in a hypothetical first round of a two-stage election. Zelenskyy followed with 16%. Opponent Tymoshenko came in third with 12%. Neither Mr. Zarzhny nor Mr. Tymoshenko have announced their intention to run.
The decline in support could have implications for Mr. Zelensky beyond politics, undermining his role as wartime commander in chief.
In his analysis of the decline in approval ratings, Anton Khrushetsky, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, said: “There is little value in explaining further what disasters could occur in the case of delegitimization and breakdown of control.” No,” he said.
That hasn’t stopped Mr. Trump and his aides from smearing Mr. Zelenskiy. At a rally in September, for example, Trump called Zelensky “the greatest salesman of all time” for the billions of dollars in military aid he secured to protect the country.
However, speaking to reporters on the Monday after the inauguration, Mr. Trump gave a positive review of Mr. Zelensky’s openness to settlement negotiations and gave one of his harshest evaluations of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to date. President Putin said, “We are destroying Russia.” ” With the war.
Mr. Zelensky and his allies are rushing to infiltrate Mr. Trump’s team. The Ukrainian president met with Trump in New York in September. Ukraine’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, met with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and then-Florida congressman Michael Michael at the Capitol in December, according to two people familiar with the meeting. He met with the President’s next National Security Advisor Walz.
Zelenskiy’s closest aides are also trying to curry favor behind the scenes. Kiev officials are discussing the possibility of brokering a deal to buy the Ukrainian rights to Melania Trump’s book “Melania,” according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the discussions.
The person said it was unclear whether anyone in the group contacted Trump’s aides or publishers. He said the discussions were little more than “brainstorming” by Zelensky’s aides to build a better relationship with Trump.
Mr. Poroshenko met with Mr. Walz during a visit to Washington in December. Select National Security Advisor. Mr. Poroshenko promoted the exchange as follows: facebook post In it, he touted his ties to the Trump team and included a photo of himself with Walz.
“I have received assurances that the new American administration is ready to provide leadership in the issue of repelling Russian aggression and establishing a just peace in Ukraine,” he wrote, adding that Trump The team added, “I remember very well my work with Mr. Trump during his presidency.”
Attendees said Mr. Poroshenko exaggerated the importance of his interaction with Mr. Walz, who said the interaction took place in the hallway of an event the two men were attending and was not a formal meeting. Mr. Poroshenko denied pursuing political goals during the war.
Oleksandr Mereshko, head of the foreign policy committee in Ukraine’s parliament and a member of Zelenskiy’s party, said it was standard diplomacy for Trump’s team to talk with the opposition.
“Ukraine is a democratic society,” he said. “It’s great to meet with the opposition.”
But he insisted that the opposition’s activities were “mainly about self-promotion and political PR.” Mr. Melezico has tried a different approach, trying to get Mr. Trump to focus on the war. Last fall, he nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Mereshko said he doesn’t think Trump has any deep-seated animosity toward Zelenskiy. The “greatest salesman” comment could be taken as a compliment, he said.
“In Trump’s world, this is a compliment,” he said.
