SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
You can’t blame anyone for feeling like the presidential election has been going on for more than a year now — and it has. But this first Monday in September is the final stretch, and while the race is drawing to a close, things could get very intense in the coming months. NPR’s Franco Ordóñez and Domenico Montanaro have been following the race for the last year and a half, and will continue to do so on Election Day and beyond. Hi, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
DETROW: Franco, how are you?
Franco Ordóñez: Scott, how are you?
DETROW: I’m doing great. And we’ve somehow made it to Labor Day. You know, Labor Day is traditionally when people’s attention is on the presidential election. And Domenico, this race has had so much upheaval, especially this summer, that I can’t really explain what Labor Day is like right now. But there’s so much attention now on a race that up until this point has been lacking in voter attention. How does it look for you?
MONTANARO: Well, we’re in the same situation as we were when the campaign started.
(Laughter)
Montanaro: Basically, the seven states that people are paying a lot of attention to are all in the close category. They’re the three blue wall states, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and the four Sun Belt states, Arizona and Nevada in the West, and North Carolina and Georgia in the East. But there are some polls coming out this week as well that, if you look closely, Harris has made some significant gains in a lot of these places, by 4 to 6 points or more. Harris now has a narrow but consistent lead in the three blue wall states. And if she, Scott, if she can hold onto those states, she’ll have 270 electoral votes. So the map is really messed up for Trump and a lot of paths open for Harris. But this is still a very close race.
DETROW: It’s amazing how, after all the twists and turns of the summer, it’s still the same seven states. And now here we are. Franco, a lot of attention this summer has been on Harris’ new campaign, the candidate introductions, the VP selection, the convention…
ORDOÓÓZ: Yes, that’s right.
DETROW: …our first interview of the week. The second talking point about the Trump campaign was that they lack focus, they don’t have momentum, they don’t know what to do about it. Where does the Trump campaign stand heading into the fall? Is the Trump campaign gaining momentum?
ORDOÓNÉZ: Yeah. Harris certainly wasn’t focused when she first became the nominee — when she took the reins from Biden. And the Trump campaign significantly ramped up her schedule, especially as Harris gained momentum. That meant she faced criticism that she was too slow to adapt. But since the Democratic National Convention, he’s been zipping around battleground states, sometimes holding multiple events in a single day. He’s even been doing a few interviews.
He has been posting more online, including on X (officially Twitter), which is why he was temporarily banned. He has also been attracting attention for his online activity, including posting or at least reposting on social media websites that suggest he engaged in sexual favours with Harris to further his political career. This is, of course, not true. It is unclear whether this is the kind of attention Trump wants. But then again, attention is attention for Trump, and that could be a win for him.
DETROW: But what are his goals at this point? Domenico opened up about the fact that he’s lost almost all of his leads in the past few months.
ORDOÓÓZ: Yes. So I think one of Trump’s aims is to show that he can work harder than Harris, or at least not be outdone by her, even though he’s the older candidate. As the campaign says, there are no free shots at the goal. But I think a lot of it is trying to draw as much contrast as possible with the Harris campaign. That might mean talking about specific policy issues like inflation, crime, safety, the border, but it’s also attacking and fueling criticism that Harris hasn’t engaged more with the press and made her positions clear in an unscripted way. Of course, you mentioned that Harris was interviewed by CNN, which was her first interview since taking over from Biden. But the Trump campaign has argued or grilled her that Harris hasn’t tried hard enough. And during that same period, Trump has had dozens of interactions with the press, although I will note that some of them were with very friendly outlets.
DETROW: Well, Domenico, you looked at Harris’ interview the other day. One of the things that Franco mentioned was the personal attacks that Trump has been hurling at her on various fronts. I thought it was notable that she stuck to what she’s always done – the usual, one after the other – and didn’t want to engage at all with the personal attacks that Trump has been hurling at her, as the campaign has done.
MONTANARO: Well, she didn’t fall prey to racism, for lack of a better word. And this is what Trump is trying to do, to drag her into his own scandal, into a controversy that he created. And in fact, the Democratic candidates before Joe Biden were Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama, obviously, is black, the first black president. He was careful about race because he wanted to make sure he appealed to moderates, especially white Americans, in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And, you know, he had a Midwestern vernacular. So, he was known for appealing to voters in southern Illinois. For example, when he was working with Senator Jim Bunning from neighboring Kentucky, he was known as the “liquid coal” senator, because he really targeted those voters and tried to show that he wasn’t an extremist and that he could win. And guess what? He won.
Hillary Clinton took a slightly different approach in 2016, leaning heavily on gender and talking about the glass ceiling, which didn’t work for a lot of voters. Kamala Harris has done both. She has a lot of Obama supporters on her team. And she’s made a clear decision that she doesn’t want to lean on race and gender and give anybody an excuse not to vote for her. She’s stuck to the kinds of issues that are more centrist.
DETROW: Franco, one last question. You and Domenico were saying that after the twists and turns of the summer, seven states will likely decide the outcome, but they’re all very close, and the race is just starting. Does the Trump campaign see this campaign as fundamentally different, or does it see it as following the same fundamental principles that it’s always followed?
ORDOÓÓZ: Of course, they understand that there has been a change, but they also recognize that there is a different dynamic. I mean, it’s clear that Trump is trying to tie Harris to the Biden administration, to Biden policies. At the same time, they definitely recognize the shift in momentum and they need to address it. That’s why I think you’re seeing some changes in the campaign. I’ve talked to members of the campaign, and they say they’re going to continue to intensify these efforts. They really have no choice. Harris is riding this incredible wave, with polls and $500 million in fundraising. The Trump campaign has to act. That’s why I think you’re seeing some changes in the campaign staff.
DETROW: Franco Ordóñez and Domenico Montanaro. Thank you both.
ORDOÓNÉZ: Thank you, Scott.
MONTANARO: Okay.
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