Trump Claims Harris’s Rallies Are Smaller. We Counted.

The significant support Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered at her rallies has unnerved former President Donald J. Trump, who for years has emphasized, and often exaggerated, the size of his rally attendance. Trump has often falsely stated that his rally attendance was far larger than Harris’s, and the Harris campaign has leveled its own criticisms of the enthusiasm of Trump rallygoers.

We attended six rallies in six states (all the candidates’ campaign events over a three-week period in August), captured photos, videos and 360-degree footage, and analyzed which claims about crowd size were persuasive. Our analysis found that, despite Trump’s claims, both candidates drew relatively large audiences.

On Friday night, Trump drew a crowd of 11,500 to Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. Here’s what happened:

On a Tuesday night during the week-long Democratic National Convention in late August, Harris drew 12,800 people to a campaign event at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Here’s a clip from the rally:

Four other election events attended by The Times were similarly packed, with spectators generally filling the spaces designated for the events. The rallies took place in venues with maximum capacity ranging from 6,800 to 19,300 people, though in some cases sections of seating were blocked off to provide additional seating or standing areas.

For each of the six events, The Times counted the number of people seen in footage taken immediately after each candidate began speaking, taking into account people in poorly lit or poorly visible areas. The numbers don’t represent people who left early before the footage was filmed or who arrived late.

Experts say crowd size at a rally doesn’t directly correlate to the outcome of an election. For example, event organizers may strategically choose a venue with a low capacity, such as a building on a college campus that can accommodate only a few hundred people. The day of the week and time of day can also affect crowd size and the times people arrive and leave.

Still, crowd size has been a sensitive issue for Trump throughout his political career and has become an intensified obsession in recent days as enthusiasm for the new Democratic candidate has grown, with Trump falsely claiming that crowd photos at Harris events had been altered using AI.

In response, Harris’ campaign posted a video of moments seen in the audience yawning at Trump rallies, while another post from Truth Social said Trump’s audience left a Pennsylvania rally early, “leaving even more empty seats.”

The Times found that people left early at two of Trump’s three events, including while he was speaking.

Photos taken during Trump rallies show people leaving their seats. Below is a series of photos taken at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania on August 17, 13 minutes and just over an hour into the speech.

This shows where the seats emptied an hour after Trump began speaking at a rally in Glendale, Arizona on August 23.

Trump’s rallies tended to last longer than Harris’s, which may have led to more early departures. Trump rallies typically arrive earlier and their opening speeches tend to start earlier and last longer. Of the six rallies The Times attended, Trump spoke four times longer than Harris.

While the correlation between crowd size and election outcomes is limited, the fact that both sides have openly argued over the metric suggests it has at least some political meaning.

Todd Belt, director of the George Washington University Political Management Program, said large, enthusiastic audiences also help energize a candidate’s speech and contribute to a “bandwagon effect” that shows people who weren’t there that enthusiasm for a candidate is genuine.

“I don’t believe these events will change people’s minds, but they do make people feel like they’re not alone,” said Betsy Reiser, 62, who attended Harris’ rally in Savannah, Georgia. “Feeling like you belong is very important.”