Third-party voters face a tough choice in a tight election : NPR

Voters considering third-party candidates face the same dilemma every presidential election: Should they support a candidate who is unlikely to win in accordance with their values, or should they compromise and support a Democratic or Republican candidate who they perceive as flawed?

This year Pope Francis spoke.

“You have to choose the lesser of two evils,” the pope said at a press conference aboard Papal Air Force One in September. He did not say whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump was the lesser evil, but he described both candidates as anti-life, citing Harris’s views on abortion and Trump’s views on immigration.

Still, for many voters, supporting either candidate is unacceptable. Every four years, millions of Americans support a third-party candidate. These voters can have an impact in close elections, even if their candidate doesn’t win.

“In very close races, third party candidates are a very small factor in terms of percentage, but they’re still a factor,” said Tim Malloy, an analyst with Quinnipiac University polling. “In races that are going to be decided by 3 or 4 percentage points or less, third party candidates are still a factor.”

Most polls, including the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, show Trump and Harris in a close race.

Malloy said third-party voters are often single-issue interested, and issues such as abortion, the environment and the Gaza conflict “can sway them.”

Republican “abortion nonsense”

John Quinn of Maryland is a millennial who describes himself as pro-life and plans to vote this year for American Solidarity, a Christian Democratic party that opposes abortion rights.

Quinn said he knows ASP candidates Peter Sonski and Lauren Onak will lose, but he believes his vote counts.

“If the few votes that American Solidarity truly cast for a pro-life vision are the reason Republican candidates lost the election, then hopefully in 2028 the Republican Party will take pro-lifers more seriously and not downplay the issue as they have this year,” Quinn said.

Reproductive rights have become a hot political topic since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and returned abortion to the states in 2022. In the 2022 midterm elections, voters in five states, including Kentucky and Montana, which typically have more conservative voters, supported abortion-rights options at the polls.

Harris has made reproductive rights a key part of her candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, Flipped On his stance on abortion: Last month, he indicated he would vote for Florida’s abortion access amendment, but then made it clear he would vote against it.

For Quinn, these two options left him with no choice but to vote third party.

“You can’t even weigh which of the two evils is the worse,” Quinn said.

It’s unclear how many voters Trump will lose because of his stance on abortion, but Onak, the ASP-endorsed vice presidential candidate, said he is seeing increased interest in his campaign.

“After the Republican Party changed its policy stance on abortion, we saw more people contact us, follow us on social media and volunteer for our campaigns,” Onak said. “We also saw an increase in donations.”

In July, the Republican Party removed references to its support for a nationwide 20-week ban and a constitutional amendment restricting abortion from its new platform language.

Beyond the abortion issue, voters are also troubled by shifts in the Republican Party’s economic and foreign policy stances. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is a self-described “Reagan conservative” who supports Ukraine in its war with Russia and believes in the rule of law. Hutchinson also ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination this term.

“I’m going to put the name of a good Republican on my ballot,” Hutchinson said. “I’m going to keep my oath to not support a convicted felon.” [Trump]that’s why.”

While several prominent Republicans, including senior Trump administration officials, have said they will support Harris, Hutchinson said he believes many Republicans are in the same boat as him and will vote for another candidate.

The Gaza war has “gotten my vote” for the Green Party

Anton Navaso posted a statement on Instagram in white text on a black background explaining his support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and his rejection of both Harris and Trump.

“First of all, I disagree with both Republicans and Democrats’ support for the Israeli government’s actions in Palestine, and I welcome that the Green Party does the same,” Navaso said by phone as he prepared to move to Seattle.

Navazo voted for Biden in the last election and said he has little hope of Stein winning in 2024 but that it could have an impact in 2028.

“If Democrats or Republicans believe that Green Party or third party votes are the reason they lost the election, then I think they need to work harder to get those votes in the next election,” Navazo said.

Roman Fritz, a 20-year-old college student from Wisconsin, said he mostly agreed with Navaso’s views but was conflicted.

“I intend to vote for Harris in November,” Fritz said, after a brief pause. “I intend to vote for Harris, but I am not going to campaign for her, and I am not going to encourage anyone to vote for her.”

Fritz was the only delegate from the Badger State to vote “abstain” on Ms. Harris’ nomination at the Democratic National Convention, and he has backed the Green Party’s Ms. Stein on the issues, but he can’t seem to stomach a Trump victory.

“I think the only candidates who can win are Trump or Kamala Harris,” Fritz said. “Kamala Harris is the better of the two. My heart is just not fully in it, just because we don’t have a coherent ceasefire plan in Gaza.”

Last Thursday, leaders of the No Bind campaign, a Democratic group opposed to President Biden’s policies towards Israel and Gaza, said they would not endorse Harris but called on Americans to vote against Trump.

Hundreds of thousands of voters cast “independent” ballots in the Democratic primaries in states including Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden was leading at the time, and Harris was attracting support from younger, more liberal voters, but it was unclear how many of them would vote against her because of her support for Israel.

The “Wednesday Morning” Thought Experiment

Single-party voters who feel abandoned by both Harris and Trump face a dilemma in an election with high stakes.

Archon Huang, a Harvard University political science professor who teaches a course called “Politics and Ethics in Volatility,” offered a solution for undecided voters.

“If you live in a state where the election isn’t close, it’s probably OK to vote for a third-party candidate based on your values,” Fang said, because your vote won’t affect the outcome of the election. “But if you live in a state where the Electoral College is close, it becomes a much more difficult decision.”

Either way, he said, voters need to “take responsibility for their choice” in a battleground state like Wisconsin if they vote for a third-party candidate like Stein and their least preferred candidate, like Trump, wins.

In this case, Fan suggested voters close their eyes and imagine November 6th.

“Wednesday morning, Trump won Wisconsin, and Wisconsin is decisive in the Electoral College,” Fang said. “When you look at yourself in the mirror, what do you say to yourself?”

If the answer is “I’m OK,” vote for a third party, Fang says. But if the answer is “What have I done?” vote for the best of the major candidates.

“I’d like you to try this little thought experiment,” the Harvard professor says. “What would I say to myself on Wednesday morning?”