International tourists tend to stay longer and spend more, representing half of the $51 billion that cities won the net through tourism in 2024.
The US is on track to a very bad tourism year. Exclusively shared, according to new data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). Bloombergthe country is expected to lose $12.5 billion in travel revenue in 2025, with visitor spending estimated to fall below $169 billion by the end of the year. This number represents a 7% decline in visitor spending compared to the previous year, representing a 22% decline since tourism peaked in the US in 2019.
This will make the US a league of its own. Of the 184 global economies analyzed by the WTTC along with Oxford Economics, that is the only one predicted to lose the tourist dollar this year. “Other countries are really rolling out welcome mats. It feels like the US has a ‘we’re closed’ sign in the doorway,” says Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC.
Simpson says the outcome could be devastating. “The US travel and tourism sector is the largest sector worldwide compared to any other country, worth almost $2.6 trillion,” she says, citing economic data from WTTC and Oxford. According to Simpson data, direct and indirect tourism accounts for 9% of the US economy. (Visitor spending is one of the “direct” parts of the travel economy, and “indirect” contributions include the knock-on effect of increased spending by hospitality experts.) The sector employs 20 million people and generates 7% of all tax revenues received by the US government. It is “the major mainstay of the US economy,” she says.
The problems facing the industry have taken years. The problem began in the Biden era as a result of travel requirements during the COVID era, which remained longer than most other countries. The rising dollar then began pricing people. “Japanese people used to visit the US a lot, but the strong dollar made it a very expensive place,” Simpson says. “It’s the same as Europeans.”
But now, she says that changing views are turning the cracks in the American travel economy into cracks. International arrival data from the US Department of Commerce shows that travelers have already changed their behavior as a result of the current administration’s “America-First” rhetoric and policies. “What we’re seeing right now is a very sad change in emotions,” Simpson says. “Legists don’t have to confuse the tourism sector with the issue of illegal immigration, and a sophisticated system can balance both without turning around. [the country] On an island no one wants to visit. ”
In March 2025, the most robust visitor population in the US, the most robust visitor population was significantly reduced. UK arrivals fell 15% year-on-year. Germans fell 28%. Travel in Korea fell by 15%. Other major source markets, including Spain, Ireland and the Dominican Republic, fell between 24% and 33%.
This effect does not feel evenly across the US, with a $12.5 billion deficit disproportionately affecting major US gateways and tourist destinations, as well as tourist destinations along the Canadian border.
Take New York City and the broader Empire State as an example. On May 8, the city’s Tourism Bureau reversed the course on a positive outlook for 2025, which is expected to eventually recover fully from the 2025 impact.
New York’s latest forecast, which totals 64 million tourists this year, estimates that 4,00,000 domestic tourists (with fewer 8,00,000 international visitors) will visit five districts. International tourists tend to stay longer and spend more, representing half of the $51 billion that cities won the net through tourism in 2024.
According to Gov. Kathy Hochul, the slump is spreading to local areas. Approximately 66% of New York’s “northern” businesses that have protruded towards Ottawa and Montreal have already felt that they have “significantly reduced” their 2025 Canadian bookings. Hochul was attributed to President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and tariff effects in the “51st state.” Among these Northern Country companies, 26% have already adjusted staffing in response to the decline.
The damage is profound. The WTTC predicts that it will take at least 2030 for US tourism to recover to pre-Covid levels. And that’s when things don’t get worse before they get better. People in the industry are looking at the proposed law that will raise the cost of electronic systems for travel approvals required for all travelers planning to come to the US from countries participating in the visa waiver program, she says. It is currently $21 per traveler, but could rise to $40 if the law is adopted.
“The thing about tourism is that it’s very resilient,” she says. “If you press the right button, it bounces back. But increasing the cost of ESTAs will stop people even more.”
This is a cost that the US cannot easily compensate. Already, 90% of the US tourism economy consists of domestic travel – Americans are on vacation within 50 states – a sector that is difficult to grow. Meanwhile, Simpson adds that all other countries are making it easier for people to visit with new perks like digitalized visas. “India is on the rise, the Middle East is on the way, China is on the way, and Europe is on very good progress,” Simpson says. “The only people who are left behind and lose are Americans.”
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Released on May 13, 2025
