The Democrats’ Secret Weapon in the Sun Belt States: Unions

Currently, there are close races between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in seven of the key battleground states, and the fate of the presidential election will depend on the important Sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada. There is a possibility that

Despite concerns raised by recent polls, Democrats are expected to turn out large numbers of voters in both states.

on monday, new york times ran the voting numbers Trump has a 5% lead in Arizona. The paper said the Republican candidate is showing “signs of strength” in the Sunbelt, even though most other polls show Harris and Trump tied. It was widely reported in the headlines. Serve with a pinch of salt.

Yes, that is possible. times An investigation was being conducted about something. But it’s more likely that it was a fraudulent poll. After all, in August, times The state showed Harris with a 5% lead. And it’s hard to see how a 10-point swing could have happened, since the major political news during that time was Trump’s unusually intense and unfocused debate performance. Those weeks were in Trump’s favor and he was in a tight spot.

Pollsters I’ve talked to in recent months who specialize in Western states don’t think Mr. Trump has a safe cushion in the Grand Canyon State. And his candidacy certainly hasn’t been helped by the weakness of Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake. In the two years since she lost the gubernatorial race, she has made a series of conspiracy-theoretic statements.

In fact, her opponent in the Marist College poll is Ruben Gallego up 6 points. Even those who lean toward the Republican Party trafalgar group Gallego leads with four points.

There’s a similar story in neighboring Nevada. Jacky Rosen, until recently seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents, has built a large lead over Sam Brown. The latest figures released on Thursday are sublime predictive insightthe independent was a decisive break for Rosen, giving the Senators a huge 10-point lead. Other polls, including one conducted by Fox, have reached similar conclusions in recent weeks.

Currently, there is certainly room for voters to split their ballots in both Arizona and Nevada. And Noble polling suggests that Harris’ lead over Trump is much smaller than Rosen’s lead over Brown. But in close races, a good fight and a strong candidate are critical, and that’s exactly what Democrats are focusing on in the final stages of the campaign.

In Nevada, the culinary union has launched a large-scale and highly effective vote-gathering operation. When I visited Las Vegas earlier this year, Las Vegas spokespeople said they were fully focused on the election only after the union had completed a marathon series of negotiations with the city’s large casinos and, in some cases, threatened a strike. He said he plans to direct the Late August, signed by the union The first ever contract between the Venetian and Palazzo. As a result, 4,000 employees gained union protection, higher wages, and better benefits, including 32% raises and reduced workloads over the next five years.

The Venetian was the last holdout in a year-long round of negotiations. The owners’ agreement to the settlement was a major victory for organized labor in Las Vegas, one of today’s centers of union strength. This was also the time when unions began to campaign in earnest.

Historically, Las Vegas unions have helped Democrats weather close elections. Yes, many union members still deeply resent the pandemic lockdowns that shut down Las Vegas and pushed the state’s unemployment rate to alarming levels. 30 percent In the spring of 2020, Trump was able to tap into that resentment, at least in part. His suggestion is Tax exemption on tip incomeThe proposal was an odd one, but one that Harris was quick to allude to, and was aimed squarely at these workers, the waiters and bartenders in Las Vegas who supplement their salary income with tips. .

But on the ground, despite Republican maneuvers aimed at dissatisfied union votes, the Trump campaign is haphazard and lags far behind the Harris campaign in terms of organizational cohesion. In early August, as Harris’ campaign took shape, she said: 13 branch offices Nevada had only one, while Mr. Trump had only one. It takes a lot of groundwork to make up for it in a few months.

Meanwhile, all of the large labor unions in Nevada, including the local Nevada Teamsters, supported Mr. Harris. And SEIU is just getting started Large-scale door knocking campaign In the state. meanwhile, unite hereplayed a key role in swinging both Arizona and Georgia to Joe Biden in 2020, but between now and the election it will sell 3.5 million in 10 battleground states, including Nevada and Arizona. He announced his goal to knock on doors. If this goal is achieved, it would be the largest propaganda campaign by a single union in U.S. history.

Yes, presidential elections are coming up in Nevada and Arizona. But Democrats have an organizational advantage, certainly in Nevada and perhaps Arizona as well, that gives them an advantage in a final, desperate rush to the finish line.