Emphasizing theater over technology, Elon Musk and Tesla have finally announced plans to roll out robotaxi services in California and Texas next year. The jury is still out on whether Tesla can actually deliver on its promises, but many other companies are already doing this. In San Francisco and Phoenix, Alphabet Inc.’s self-driving taxi company Waymo will begin commercial operations in 2021. GM and Uber recently announced that: Cruise self-driving taxis will be part of the Uber platform in some cities from 2025.
For Elon Musk and other robotaxi technology leaders, these innovations offer more than just the latest driverless technology. They are revolutionizing the way we move around our cities and communities, promising an era of accessible and safe ride-hailing convenience. In other words, it promises a better commuting experience.
“With autonomy, you can take back your time,” Musk said recently in a video set against the backdrop of the worst Los Angeles traffic jams. But despite this great promise, the influx of self-driving, on-demand vehicles will not improve traffic conditions. In fact, it will make America’s already congested roads even worse.
A dead end is a dead end.
In 2022, Americans will Over 3 billion gallons of fuel was wasted during 8.5 billion hours of traffic jams. According to the latest Texas Transportation Institute Urban Mobility Report. The mass adoption of robotaxis will only make this situation worse. Unlike private cars, robotaxis, traditional taxis, and ride-hailing services must travel to pick-up locations without passengers. This is known as deadheading and adds additional driving to the system.
Many studies have demonstrated this effect. In major American cities, Ride-hailing vehicles can travel up to 2.6 miles for every passenger mile driven. This is more than a 50% increase compared to driving your own car, even accounting for the additional driving to find parking.
Robotaxi companies will argue that centralized vehicle routing algorithms can mitigate this effect, but dead ends are inevitable in any taxi system. This is even more pronounced during rush hour, when traffic congestion is at its worst, as commuting demand tends to be very directional, requiring long trips between drop-offs and subsequent rides.
Private cars cannot be replaced by taxis (human or autonomous) without significantly increasing congestion.
But what if instead of pouring resources into innovative robotaxis, we focused on improving and automating transportation that, when done well, is proven to reduce traffic? What if we imagined a future that catered to the needs of commuters?
Buses are ready for self-driving
For many years, researchers and journalists have claimed Better bus service is an easy way to improve cities and impact the lives of millions of Americans. Improving bus service is relatively inexpensive. There is no need to build large new infrastructure. Buses are also more environmentally sustainable than cars and provide more equitable access to transportation.
But buses remain underfunded, and since the pandemic. Massive bus driver shortage All over the country. In addition to these issues, the sprawling nature of many U.S. cities makes it difficult to design traditional bus routes that allow everyone to walk to a bus stop.
Autonomy could help address many of the issues holding back buses. RoboBus will bring new technology and excitement to mass transit, and perhaps with it more attention and funding for buses as a mode of transportation. More importantly, it will address the driver shortage and change the economics of operating small buses and shuttles, making them more cost-effective. (Labor costs can account for up to 70% of transportation operating budgets. )
Similar to small self-driving buses Robovan made a brief cameo appearance at Tesla’s CyberCab event. It can operate as a microtransit shuttle depending on demand. Imagine self-driving shuttles that function like Uber Pools, transporting commuters from their homes and workplaces to the nearest bus or train station, or even door-to-door in areas where there isn’t enough demand for traditional bus service. Please try it.
Although the leaders in self-driving vehicle technology are focused on cars, the transition is not difficult. Bus automation is not much different. In fact, automating transportation vehicles is in many ways easier than deploying robotaxis. This is because robotaxis typically operate on a smaller set of larger roads and typically have fixed stops. Robotaxis, roboshuttles, and buses (self-driving or not) can be integrated to design systems that improve commuting for everyone. Some companies are already building such systems, and cities are experimenting with autonomous microtransit pilots. probably, The most ambitious such initiative is underway in Oslo.
Bringing the latest technology and R&D investment to mass transit can have a far greater impact on society than just autonomous ride-hailing. This isn’t all that different from the vision promoted by Tesla and Waymo. All you need to do is extend the idea to carpooling while navigating crowded aisles. A high-quality bus will save you time in crowded corridors rather than crawling through traffic jams by car. If you’re traveling to places where travel demand is low, you’ll still use robotaxis and shuttles.
Elon Musk recently said:When Tesla rolls out fully autonomous driving without supervision, there will be no need for buses, as they will be able to travel from point to point for as little as the cost of a bus ticket.Regardless of cost, hundreds of buses should not be replaced with tens of thousands of robotaxis.
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