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Tesla robotaxi event comes after years of Elon Musk’s missed deadlines

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SpaceX and Tesla CEO and owner of Company X look on during the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference session held at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, USA on May 6, 2024. Mr. Elon Musk.

David Swanson | Reuters

and Tesla’s With the long-awaited robotaxi event just hours away, investors will soon get a glimpse of what CEO Elon Musk has dubbed the CyberCab.

After a decade of unfulfilled promises to deliver self-driving cars that can safely travel reasonable distances without a human at the wheel, what Tesla can do technologically and its robots. There is considerable skepticism as to when taxis will actually hit the market.

The Robotaxi Day, or “We, Robot” event is scheduled to begin at 7pm PT at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, and will be livestreamed via X.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said in an Oct. 4 preview that Tesla’s robot taxis could appear more advanced in closed-course conditions on movie studio grounds than they would be in normal traffic or on public roads. I was warned that it was sexual. CFRA has given the stock a hold rating.

Tesla shares fell about 1% on Thursday to $238.77. It is currently down about 4% for the year, more than 40% below the record set in 2021.

The event came a week after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 462,890 vehicles, bringing total annual deliveries to date to 1.35 million. For all of last year, Tesla reported 1.81 million vehicle deliveries.

Bullish analysts at companies such as Wedbush, ARK, and RBC Capital Markets are betting on long-term revenue growth while delivering long-delayed high-tech products such as self-driving cars, humanoid robotics, and other AI. He expressed optimism in the report about the company’s ability to continue to grow. Leading products and services.

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday that he plans to attend the event and test the robotaxi.

Munster, a longtime Tesla bull, said he believes the company will roll out robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. He also expects Tesla to announce plans to produce an affordable EV, perhaps a stripped-down version of the Model 3. , electric van.

Although he expects the stock to fall after the event, he said it could “hit new highs” over the next two years as deliveries begin to accelerate.

Tesla was once considered a pioneer in self-driving car development, but it has never been successful in delivering or demonstrating robotaxi technology. The company is now considered a laggard.

of the alphabet Waymo in the US and a number of Chinese companies currently operate commercial robotaxis services.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report Wednesday that Tesla will use its current “hardware and software suite” to launch a “Level 4” robotaxi that can operate without a driver at the steering wheel. If possible, he wrote, it would be costly. Advantage per mile compared to peers.

In addition to missing the deadline, Tesla also has safety issues with its driver-assistance systems, which are currently sold as standard Autopilot and premium fully self-driving (with supervision) options.

Missy Cummings, professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Center for Autonomy and Robotics, says Tesla’s leaders should talk about how they are solving the problem known as “phantom brakes.” said. Even when there are no visible obstacles nearby, you may find yourself slamming on the brakes unexpectedly while driving on the highway.

Tesla’s phantom brake problem is a hot topic ongoing investigation According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “If we can’t solve phantom brakes on Level 2 cars, we can’t solve them on Level 4 and 5 cars,” Cummings, who previously served as the regulator’s senior safety adviser, told CNBC. Level 2 vehicles are equipped with driver assistance systems.

According to the data Tracked by NHTSA Since 2021, there have been 1,399 accidents in which Tesla’s driver assistance systems activated within 30 seconds of a collision, and 31 of those accidents resulted in fatalities.

Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights, said Musk and other Tesla executives will be looking at how the vehicles will operate in different weather conditions, including fog, rain, snow and lighting, as well as in dark tunnels. He said that it should be possible to say accurately.

He also called on Tesla executives to state whether they would take full responsibility for operating these vehicles, which he called “a bet on true robotaxis without human control.” I’m here.

Finally, Abuelsamid wants to know whether Tesla plans to own and operate the robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers or fleet operators.

“Many companies are making advances in self-driving technology,” Abuelsamid said. “But they faltered in terms of finding a profitable business model. Tesla has a lot of challenges to overcome. I’m curious to see how all the pieces fall into place. I think so.”

clock: It will be another five years before we see a Waymo-like car from Tesla.

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