As I have done in the past, below are the keys and my predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win (or lose) today’s game. In their Week 8 game against the New York Giants, three things need to happen for them to be on the right side of the score and vice versa.
My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.
If the Steelers win…
1. The Giants’ man coverage is the same weakness as the Jets game.
Like the New York Jets, the Giants’ secondary is also really hurting. No Adley Jackson. Almost certainly no Cordell Flats. Probably not Tre Hawkins either. New York will have to replace hundreds of defensive snaps in this game.
The Giants are a team with a lot of people, and if they maintain their character, they could struggle like the Jets. Pittsburgh could continue to pick and love and WR George Pickens dominates his next 100-yard performance. Russell Wilson is smart about getting the ball to him early and often.
2. One-dimensional giant’s attack is sluggish
New York has been a poor rushing team this season. And they have little interest in trying, betting everything on Daniel Jones as a passer and, frankly, as a runner. He’s a tough guy, but the world is on his shoulders and he’s cornered over his head.
Pittsburgh is at its best when it makes the opponent one-dimensional and forces the QB to win. Sometimes a very talented quarterback can overcome that, but Jones is probably not that guy. Especially when a battered offensive line is missing a stud left tackle and likely a starting right tackle. If the Giants stay at No. 3 forever, TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith could have big days.
3. Pittsburgh’s special teams remain special.
The Giants are on the upswing. And if they lose the special teams battle, their margin of victory will become even narrower. Danny Smith’s unit is on a roll right now, blocking kicks/punts in three straight games. The coverage team has been great, with Corliss Weightman punting well and Chris Boswell on pace to set an NFL record for most field goals made in a season. New York hasn’t had much success and is a backup punter due to injuries.
The Steelers will lose if…
1. NT Dexter Lawrence removes Russell Wilson from the spot.
One player to worry about is Giants NT Dexter Lawrence. He can dominate the middle, stifle the running game, and collapse the pocket against Steelers No. 4 center Ryan McCollum in the passing game. Credit to McCollum for his persistence in his first start for the Steelers last week, but Lawrence is an elite-level player who had a historic season.
Not only is his pocket collapse significant, but it also shows that Russell Wilson is still cautious in handling phantom pressure, let alone actual rushing. And if he bails, a guy like Brian Burns could make some impact plays on the edge. That’s a concern for the Giants’ pass rush, which enters Week 8 leading the NFL with 31 sacks.
2. Daniel Jones shows his road ability again.
As with most things, life outside of New Jersey is better. When Jones is away from his home crowd, he turns into a serviceable NFL quarterback with the wildest home and road splits, and is significantly better on the road. This season, the Giants have two wins and one loss at other teams’ stadiums.
It’s hard to dig into the rhyme or reason. Perhaps there’s just less pressure and scrutiny from the crowd, but Jones may look better than expected given his poor season performance.
3. 50/50 balls are less successful.
There’s no question that Pittsburgh’s offense moved the ball primarily through chunk plays in the passing game, with players like Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth making impressive contested catches. Will it happen again? perhaps. They have the talent to do that, and Pickens is arguably the most contested catcher in the game. However, it is difficult to deposit it in a bank. And Wilson still has to show that the passing game can be crisper and more fluid. If he still struggles, Wilson’s second game may not be as impressive.
prediction
Steelers: 20
giant: 17
Seasonal forecast record
3-4
