The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 5-2 on a two-game winning streak. All three phases turned up the heat from the mid-second quarter for the 37-15 victory against the New York Jets (2-5).
This was in Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson’s first start of 2024 and with the Steelers. Not perfect by any means, but was able to open up the pass game and positively impacted the overall offense for their highest point total of the year.
Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Two throwaways and a bat this game, each third down fails in the first half, which the offense went 0/6 on before halftime.
This was a major issue to getting things going in the first half. Once that was cleaned up (5/8 second half third downs), we saw the icing on the cake of what this passing offense can be. The pro is many plays were made, but several missed ones as well that leave an encouraging ceiling if it improves. Like those chances, with the rust Wilson was shaking off.
Wilson went 16-of-29 (55.2-percent completion rate) on the stat sheet, emphasizing some of the miscues including accuracy. 264 passing yards though, most in a Steelers debut. This included five explosive passes which HC Mike Tomlin was hoping for when making this decision, and thankfully we saw just that. Two passing TDs was also an obvious bright spot, with WR George Pickens and Van Jefferson getting their first of the season.
A big difference between Wilson and Justin Fields is mobility, but instead of using the latter in some packages, the former had a couple big short yardage plays. One was a one-yard TD, and the other a 4th and 1 conversion, keeping the final dagger drive with six minutes of straight runs going to end the game. Much more under center, positively impacting play-action success as well, with Wilson going 8-of-9 for 150 yards.
With Wilson’s experience and resume, the decision that looked questionable to many got it done in primetime overall.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 26 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 7:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 46.2-percent. Most common as usual. The first pass of the game was a play-action roll right to TE Darnell Washington in the flat, wide-open for 15 yards including 12 in YAC. Nice way to get things started.
Next example was 3rd and 8. This drive unfortunately stalled on an underthrown pivot route to WR Calvin Austin, with Wilson’s throw impacted by pressure for the offenses second-straight three-and-out. 2nd and 7 on drive No. five, Pittsburgh went back to Washington on the play-action boot to the flat, working yet again on a lob over the free rusher for an 18-yard gain (16 YAC) where he ran the DB over for good measure.
Another enjoyable one began the next drive. Despite a free rusher in his face, Wilson delivered a play-action shallow-crosser dime to TE Pat Freiermuth, catching at three air yards with room to roam for 30 yards with his own churning at the end as well. Point-guarding to his playmakers.
Within two-minutes before halftime, Wilson triggered quick to WR Van Jefferson on an out, who was also able to get YAC on the 11-yard gain and first down, with that drive ultimately leading to much needed points.
First drive of the second half, Wilson was pressured (T Broderick Jones), just flipping it low to RB Najee Harris to avoid a negative play sack. Then, back to the familiar Washington play. Wilson had to lob this one over two free rushers, a bit high for even that mountain of a man, making a good high catch out of his frame but was corralled immediately for just one yard.
The same drive made it to the red zone. On 3rd and goal inside the five, Wilson targeted Jefferson on the shallow-crosser along the goal line, but unfortunately caught feet with the DB and was tripped up (incomplete). The field goal settle did give Pittsburgh their first lead (16-15) mid-third quarter.
Late third quarter, why not try the Washington play again? New York was ready though, forcing a bit of a lob again with the coverage stopping him in his tracks again for just two yards. The next play 3rd and 8, able to dump it off to RB Jaylen Warren despite pressure (Jones) at the line of scrimmage, who made a nice inside cut for YAC and a huge 11-yard conversion to retain possession with the 23-15 lead.
Same drive, 2nd and 5. Wilson rolls left and finds WR George Pickens on a nice out route throw, and getting a couple in YAC to ensure the first down. Last example was later on this drive early fourth quarter. 3rd and goal from the 4-yard line, Pickens ran a vertical end zone route, occupying two defenders and freeing Jefferson for the wide-open out route for the TD. This creates a comfortable 30-15 lead.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 26.9-percent. First example yet to be mentioned was 3rd and 1 on the second drive. Wilson was forced to move the pocket (Jones), making a great throw to Austin who had it, but can’t survive the ground on the drop at five air yards leading to a punt. The following drive was another incompletion, back-shouldering it to Pickens who was unable to get his head around due to a no-call hands to the face. Not on Wilson though.
Sixth drive late second quarter now. It’s a horrid 3rd and 24 situation following a holding penalty (C Ryan McCollum) and sack (Jones). Wilson was seemingly trying to take advantage of a late defensive substitution, throwing to Pickens quick at seven air yards with space, but the 12-yard gain was far from enough.
Waning moments before halftime, another fail at the distance. Wilson was forced to move the pocket again (McCollum/Jones), affecting the low incomplete pass to Warren who was open on the option route in the red zone. Next came on the long third quarter drive, a quick fade attempt to Pickens from the 3-yard line that was broken up and unable to contested catch. Confusingly unsuccessful at this air yardage.
T-3rd. 15-20 air-yards: 11.5-percent. Three passes. First was a big one on the last play of the first half, where Wilson attacked their top CB being out to Pickens on an iso-fade from the red zone, making the catch over his head on the slight underthrow for his first TD of 2024. Huge to cut the deficit to 15-13.
On the long third quarter drive, Pittsburgh faced 3rd and 5. Wilson delivered a beautiful drop in the bucket deep to Freiermuth, who plucked it one-handed over his head at 17-air yards with a bit of YAC on the explosive 21-yard gain to the red zone. Huge play for more points (FG settle).
The other was the final pass of the game. Wilson surveys, and despite some late pressure (G Isaac Seumalo), touch-passing it to Austin on the intermediate crosser as open as you’ll see in the NFL at 16-air yards, and adding explosive YAC for the huge 36-yard gain. This set up the dominant string of runs that sealed victory. Very successful deep intermediate day for Wilson.
T-3rd. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 11.5-percent. Also, three attempts. First was a play-action deep go-ball to Pickens, who made a stellar one-handed contested grab on the underthrown ball with the defender draped. Give your playmaker a shot, this one at the longest 42-air yards of 2024, and impressive 44-yard play.
Later in the second quarter, Wilson faced pressure in his face (McCollum), effecting the underthrown deep middle target at 38 air yards to Pickens, who also mistimed his jump early on the miscue.
Last example was 3rd and 7 early third quarter. Wilson was short on another deep pass, this one a slot fade to Pickens that may have been a TD if he laid it out. Fortunately, Pickens has freaky hand-eye coordination, catching it of the DBs helmet, then bobbled a couple of times but would not be denied on the circus catch at 27 air yards and jostling 37-yard gain.
#5. Behind-the-Line: 7.7-percent. Two throws, both early in the game. A completed play-action screen to Warren with a couple nice blocks allowed him to cut inside four eight in YAC on the four-yard gain. The other was the worst example of accuracy issues in the game, horrendously behind Austin on a WR screen on the no chance incompletion.
#6. 10-15 air-yards: 3.8-percent. The only play at this distance came in the fourth quarter. 2nd and goal from the four-yard line, it’s play-action behind good protection, but good end zone coverage led to a slide left and scramble-drill pass to Pickens, who can’t make the diving catch near the sideline in the end zone.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
The dots show a lack of connection to the left regardless of distance, while the right was more successful. Far too many issues at ten air yards or less, which have been money throws overall for Fields, which will be interesting to monitor. Perfect from 4-of-4 at 15-30 air yards, including three of Wilson’s explosive plays along with the Pickens touchdown. Not much between the numbers, including none between the hashes.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 1/2 (50-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 9/12 (75.0-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 1/6 (16.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 0/1 (0.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 3/3 (100-percent).
Explosive: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Poor rates from 5-15 yards, along with more than acceptable incompletions at five or less. But, the rates at 15 air yards or more where a sight to behold, in game and following struggles from Fields there.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 4/9 (44.4-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 3/6 (50-percent).
Inside hashes: 0/0 (N/A).
Right hash-right numbers: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Outside right numbers: 7/8 (87.5-percent).
Here we see the specifics of what I mentioned, far more connection to the right side. Particularly outside the right numbers, while that area on the left was a struggle.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only (NOTE: the small sample size of throws makes the heat maps wide, think lighter colors on completions only in particular):
As I explained, with so few throws for Wilson this season, the completions only view is generously wide. Looking at the lighter colors (more accurate), we see there’s hardly no drop off on the completions only chart, which makes sense after everything we’ve learned. Hopefully continued intermediate and deep connection with improved accuracy come more playing time, while also improving in that area on shorter more common pass distances as well.
Next, here’s a data recap of Wilson and Fields’ 176 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 43.8-percent. Previously 43.3-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 27.8-percent. Previously 28.0-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
T-3rd. Behind-the-line: 12.5-percent. Previously 13.3-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
T-3rd. Explosive: 13.1-percent. Previously 13.3-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.7-percent. Previously 10.7-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 6.8-percent. Previously 6.0-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
This shows the different trends for Wilson’s debut compared to Fields in five games, along with the 2023 season. Wilson threw the highest rate at 0-5 and 15-20 air yards, with a perfect rate on the latter including a TD and two explosive plays. The biggest downtick was 10-15 air yards with only one attempt (incompletion), along with behind-the-line most noticeably.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 1/2 (50-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 9/12 (75.0-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 1/6 (16.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 0/1 (0.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 3/3 (100-percent).
Explosive: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/20 (30.0-percent).
Wilson wins the deep rates, while Fields has the stronger marks at 15 air yards or less.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 4/9 (44.4-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 3/6 (50-percent).
Inside hashes: 0/0 (N/A).
Right hash-right numbers: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Outside right numbers: 7/8 (87.5-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/33 (78.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 20/31 (64.5-percent).
Fields has the higher marks aside from outside the right numbers.
To close, here are the dots and heat maps for all charted attempts. NOTE: heat maps are wider for Wilson since he has fewer passes than Fields, basically an extrapolation. Completions only views will come, assuming Wilson continues to start, making their future comparisons fair. I’ll link all the weekly articles at the end so you can compare the QBs performances if you’d like:
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 1
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 2
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 3
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 4
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 5
Steelers Passing Charts: Week 6
