The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 9-3, playing a shootout style to keep up with the Cincinnati Bengals potent passing game. Many didn’t have that in their expectations, let alone Pittsburgh coming out on top in that scenario 44-38 to hand Cincinnati another loss (4-8) in the highest total scoring in the history of their matchups.
Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Four throwaways were removed.
Wilson had a stellar game, including a career-high 257 first half passing yards. 414 total pass yards and three TDs in Week 13, becoming just the third QB in Steelers history with such marks. On the stat sheet: 29-of-38, 76.3-percent completion rate, 10.9 yards per attempt, 18 first downs, 126.8 QB Rating, 85.7 adjusted rate (no drops/throwaways), and 10.6 ANY/A are all season-bests. Great overall performance and numbers.
Whopping nine explosive passes, with several short passes going for a stellar 263 YAC against their off-zone coverage, by far a 2024 best. Great job by OC Arthur Smith and Wilson planning, and having a gauge of what they’d get schematically from the Bengals defense. This included checks to the right looks, that largely paid of well. Great command from Wilson on the offense.
The offense made some great strides across the board following the tough Cleveland loss, including the running game, and o-line overall. The latter was huge in the offense’s success, in both the run and pass game, with only two sacks. One of my few negatives on Wilson this game was leaving some clean pockets, and inviting more pressure than necessary. But overall, hard to be mad about much on this refreshing victory Monday.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 34 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 13:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 55.9-percent. Whopping 19 passes, surprising with the total pass yardage. First example was drive one on 2nd and 3, an incomplete out route to WR Van Jefferson, thrown over his head dealing with pressure (T Dan Moore). Next play (3rd and 3) was the unfortunate pick six, Wilson throwing to the spot he expected WR George Pickens slant to be, losing his footing a bit then pulled down by his helmet (no call).
Starting drive two, play-action boot right, throwing the flat at three air yards with space and YAC to gain seven. 3rd and 2, a quick decision and wide-open dump off over the middle to RB Najee Harris, catching it at the first down marker and great forced missed tackles and churning YAC to gain 25 yards. 2nd and 3 same drive, they run it back at one air yard, with a bit of YAC for five yards to move the chains.
2nd and 8 drive three, a rare charted incompletions was an underthrown out route to Jefferson, who may have gotten more depth than Wilson expected. Following 3rd and 8 was good awareness by Wilson to get the snap off, finding Pickens despite a QB hit (T Broderick Jones), open at two air yards on the shallow crosser with great spin/churn and YAC for 21 yards. But, called for taunting afterwards, negating the great play. Keep your cool youngster.
Same drive, play-action slide left, lobbing over the defender to TE Pat Freiermuth on the flat at the line and a bit of YAC for three yards. Next 2nd and 7 was hesitant. TE Darnell Washington was open on the wide-out screen, but Wilson antsy/scrambling and eventually hitting it for space and YAC, lowering his head and diving for the ten yard first down.
Same drive 1st and 15, it’s RB Cordarrelle Patterson’s turn for the short over the middle dump off action, at two air yards and eight-yard gain. Next, 2nd and 7, ran it back, at one air yard with churning YAC for nine yards. Easy chain movers against zone.
Drive four, Harris over the middle dump again, two air yards and YAC for six but no churn. Next drive 3rd and 10, a conservative flat to Freiermuth, but a very uncharacteristic drop on the failed incompletion though the pass was a bit low.
Late second quarter, it’s a decisive stop route to Freiermuth at five air yards and gain of eight. Then ran it back to the other side, decisive to Freiermuth at four air yards, and another eight yard gain.
46 seconds till halftime. Nice design to WR Calvin Austin open on the slot out route, getting within FG range for six yards, hanging on well despite a second huge hit on him in the game. Wouldn’t return (concussion protocol). Next play 2nd and 4, Wilson dumps despite the pass rush (Moore) to RB Jaylen Warren at the line, with YAC for six yards.
Last play of the second half. Short dump over the middle to Warren at four air yards against deep zone, picking up 14 with more YAC. Pittsburgh’s clock management was frustrating, instead of taking a timeout for another shot on this 1st down, bled the clock for a field goal settle. 27-21 lead at half.
Just one play out of the locker room. Play-action roll right, Wilson extending and settling with the flat on the sideline to Warren on the final charted pass of the game (5:35 fourth quarter).
T-2nd. Behind-the-Line: 17.6-percent. Six passes. First pass of the game was a play-action screen to Harris on the left with nice blocks in front, a nice inside cut for YAC and seven-yard gain. Another 1st and 10 on drive two, run it back to the right, with nice blocks again including Jones downfield and getting to the sideline for eight yards to the red zone.
Next play, it’s a WR screen to Pickens with great vision to cut outside as the free DB went inside, along with a forced missed tackle down the sideline for the touchdown. Ties the game at seven.
Drive five, first down play-action screen to Warren with nice blocks, cut inside, and forced missed tackle for stellar YAC and 29-yard gain, wow. Third quarter 3rd and 8, gets the check down out despite a QB hit (Jones), checking it down to TE MyCole Pruitt who’s met at the line with a bit of churn for three yards. Third down fail though.
2nd and 3 fourth quarter, Harris gets the play-action screen this time, picking up the needed three yards plus the 15-yard facemask penalty on Cincinnati. Very successful distance with how their defense played.
T-2nd. 5-10 air-yards: 17.6-percent. Six examples. Yet to be mentioned, a 2nd and 10 on drive five. An example of Wilson being antsy again, looking left where WR Mike Williams was open on an out route, instead scramble drill unnecessarily and low percentage sideline throw broken up to Pickens at six air yards.
#4. 15-20 air-yards: 11.8-percent. Four throws, after none last week. 1st and 10 drive four, Wilson steps up and plus throw despite his feet not being set, an encouraging intermediate crossing route from Patterson (WR alignment) at 15 air yards and adding some YAC to gain 20. Nice.
Late second quarter, Wilson bails a clean pocket on the scramble drill, and finds Freiermuth on the sideline after working back to the throw for 17 yards. A plus throw and catch.
End of the third quarter, Wilson was a bit antsy and invited pressure. Freiermuth had a short sit route, but worked upfield to sit in a soft spot in zone at 16 air yards, a heads up play for a great throw, catch, and easy 25-yard waltz-in touchdown. Great play to go up 10 points.
Fourth quarter, 3rd and 9. Wilson looks right and sees one-on-one coverage on Jefferson, who ran a slick slant, selling a short route to the DB to get free at 18 air yards and much more in YAC on the 43-yard gain. Big play.
#5. 10-15 air-yards: 8.8-percent. Three passes. Early third quarter, a sweet connection from Wilson to Pruitt on a crosser over the middle at 13 air yards, adding a bit of YAC for an 18-yard gain.
Late third quarter, another fantastic sight was a decisive slot seam despite a free blitzer, a plus throw past the sticks on 2nd and 11 to WR Ben Skowronek open in zone at 14 air yards with churning YAC for a 23-yard gain. More quantity and most important quality on intermediates as I’ve been hoping.
#6. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 5.9-percent. For all the explosive plays, just two with explosive air yards.
Beginning of the second quarter. Pickens and Freiermuth garner zone attention, and Wilson takes what the defense gives him to Austin on a slot post route over the middle, getting open in the end zone and hang on despite the contested trailer to hang on for the 23-yard touchdown. Pretty throw and catch, tying the game at 14.
The other was a rare moon ball that the Bengals really focused on eliminating. Not the case here, with a beautiful throw and catch on the sideline at 31 air yards by Pickens, getting a step and a bit of YAC on the 36-yard gain to the red zone. Unfortunately, another but. His first down celebration was of the “shooting gun” variety, and was flagged for unsportsmanlike. Don’t give refs that opportunity to minimize your fantastic playmaking.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
What jumps out right away is a much higher frequency of over the middle passes, something I’ve been hoping for quite some time. Even better, it was easy money for Wilson, taking what the defense gave and his eligibles stepping up admirably. Ten players caught a pass for at least ten yards, never done before in Pittsburgh per our Alex Kozora’s research. Was also perfect when throwing past ten yards when needed, including two TDs.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 6/6 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 16/19 (84.2-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 3/6 (50.0-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 3/3 (100-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 4/4 (100-percent).
Explosive: 2/2 (100-percent).
Great rates overall, with 5-10 yards being the exception.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 2/2 (100-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 9/10 (90.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 5/5 (100-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 5/6 (83.3-percent).
Outside right numbers: 6/8 (75.0-percent).
75-percent or higher is great, with outside the right numbers being lowest. Only five charted incompletions is excellent, and deserves props, though one was the unfortunate INT that wasn’t Wilson’s fault.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
With the lack of incompletions, and all five coming at five or six air yards, the completions only chart actually expands. This re-emphasizes how impressive the overall connection, and perfect rate past ten yards from Wilson was.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 322 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 41.9-percent. Previously 39.6-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 24.8-percent. Previously 25.7-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Explosive: 14.9-percent. Previously 16.0-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#4. Behind-the-line: 14.6-percent. Previously 14.2-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.3-percent. Previously 9.4-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 6.5-percent. Previously 5.9-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
Ranks stood pat this week. As expected from what we’ve learned, biggest uptick was 0-5 air yards (2.3-percent), substantial jump in just one week. The other upticks were behind the line and 15-20 air yards, while 5-10, explosive, and 10-15 down ticked.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 24/27 (88.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 54/68 (79.4-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 23/38 (60.5-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/14 (57.1-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 8/12 (66.7-percent).
Explosive: 15/27 (55.6-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6-percent).
Substantial rate increases in most areas for Wilson, with the only exceptions being 0-10 air yards. Those are the only distances where Fields has better rates. Each QB now playing six games to date makes for more meaningful comparisons.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 31/50 (62.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 34/40 (85.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 8/12 (66.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/31 (83.9-percent).
Outside right numbers: 27/38 (71.1-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/33 (78.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 20/31 (64.5-percent).
Wilson has stellar rates between the numbers and hashes, comfortably above 80-percent on both sides, and was on display last game. Improvements across the board are also another impressive part of his Week 13, with the most substantial jump in attempts and perfect catch rate was between the hashes.
Great to see, and we can now compare the similar sample sizes with Fields.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
