Ken Paxton’s entry into the US Senate race in Texas is becoming a major headache for Republicans.
The Top GOP Senators were piloting to undercut the Texas Attorney General, even before announcing a major campaign against Senator John Cornyn this week. Others urged President Donald Trump after Paxton took part in the race to support his incumbent leadership advisor and former Senate chairman at a deep donor base.
“The best thing would have been to keep Paxton away from the race,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (RN.D.), Trump’s intimate ally. He added that at this point, if the president seeks his advice, he will tell Trump to do “anything that will be most useful to John.”
In particular, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has remained neutral so far in Cornin and Paxton’s matchup. and Two members of the Texas delegation We’re already supporting the challenger.
Paxton is just the beginning of the party’s main issues. Republicans have the advantage that if Trump chooses, they can boost more mag-jammed challengers and force institutes in several states to force a heavily contested primary. Senate Republican leaders are working to prevent the major Trump-backed threats to Sen. Tom Tillis of North Carolina, one of the most competitive races next November. And Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy voted to convict Trump following the 2021 Capitol riots each, but faces a challenge from the right.
Republicans hope that Trump will help dodge the intraparty turmoil that complicates the Senate map next year. But they also know that a single statement from the president is sufficient to overturn their plans.
Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senators Committee; He says he works with Trump Make sure they are on the same page when it comes to protecting existing people. Scott re-emphasized his support for Cornyn after Paxton jumped into what would be expected to become the Cycle Party’s most expensive major battle, calling him a “leader that brings him to President Trump’s agenda” and “a key part of the Republican Senate majority.”
But behind the scenes efforts by the GOP leaders to persuade Trump to support Cornyn have solidified the well-known reality of Republicans. They need Trump, but they also know they can’t control him.
The Senate map leaps heavily towards the Republican Party in 2026. But they still want to avoid this constant issue for the party. Seeing untested candidates win primary just to ensure that the party costs them in the general election or spend money on what should be in a safe seat. During the midterm of 2022, Trump supported candidates such as Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters and Herschel Walker.
Sen. Steve Daines, NRSC Chairman of Last Cycle, has worked closely with Trump with a better chance in the general election and headed a different path. He was successful and helped bring the Senate majority to Republicans. However, GOP has more defenses in 2026. This includes the incumbent facing new challenges from the right.
“Look, you have to always take the primary election seriously,” Daines said. “The last time you tried to do at NRSC is to try to minimize that. But you’re always worried about your primary co-workers.”
Trump is “closely looking” in the Senate race, Daines said.
Senate Republicans aren’t just trying to get Trump to work to engage in the primary on their behalf. And in some cases, their efforts have unintended consequences. Paxton got into primary earlier than any other way, knowing that Senator Majority Leader John Thune was trying to secure Cornyn’s Trump support. Paxton also has allies urging the president to support him, the person said.
Cornyn Yorked the president during the first two and a half months of his second term, promoting his previous work with Trump during his failed bid for the majority leader last year. However, Paxton reveals he will run a campaign accusing Cornyn of being insufficiently loyal to Trump.
Trump’s aides and the Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In North Carolina, Tillis already attracts major challengers and could face another bid from Michele Moreau. Inflammatory candidates He failed to run for supervision of state public education last fall. The president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, has also emerged as a potential challenger, but recently signed on on the Fox News Channel.
Tillis asked if he had spoken about support with Trump or his team, saying, “It’s too early for me to enter into such a debate.”
But it’s Cassidy that Trump’s Senate allies aren’t that sure about. Louisiana treasurer John Fleming has already announced his run against him, and it is expected that more Republican challengers will jump into the fight. And while Cassidy has sided with Trump for key GOP causes this year, including providing a key vote to Trump F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead Trump’s Health and Human Services division, some Senate Republicans aren’t sure it’s enough to seduce the president on his side.
Trump’s intimate ally, Kramer, wasn’t sure Trump could find a way to help Louisiana Republicans.
Another Trump alliance admitted anonymity to speak openly, but predicted that the president would remain neutral and remain far less Cassidy in the primary. And Sen. John Kennedy (R-la.), who is normally swarming, declined to comment when asked whether he was in consultation with Trump in discussions about Cassidy’s racial support or at least neutrality.
Cassidy was reluctant to discuss the possibility of Trump-backed challengers on Wednesday.
“It’s kind of a stupid question,” he said of the outlook. “I’m not worried about that.”
He was asked if he had spoken about support with Trump or his team, and he asked: “Where did this come from?”
The key difference between Cassidy and other potentially at-risk incumbents is that his seat in Louisiana does not play in the general election, so the fate of the party is not linked to Cassidy winning his primary.
Cassidy also faces a new obstacle when he tries to hold his seat: Louisiana We have removed our own primary system In a parliamentary race where the top two voters are promoted to general elections regardless of party (unless the candidate wins more than 50% of one vote). This means Cassidy needs to move on to the general election to beat the more conservative and voters handed over to Trump.
If Trump targets Cassidy, it opens public divisions between Trump, Tune and the Senate’s campaign division, supporting the incumbent senator. Needless to say, money that has been separated from Republicans during the primary is away from the money that could be spent in the general election for competitive races.
Asked if he had a similar conversation to his trajectory for Trump and Cassidy, as Republicans did for Cornyn, Thune said Republicans were racing “at a time.”
“Obviously, we are investing in supporting incumbents,” Thune said, working with the White House and Senate GOP Campaign division to “make sure we may participate in the midterm elections with both candidates.”
