Macronism Has Died a Second Death

Macronism has died a second death. On December 4, the French National Assembly overwhelmingly approved a motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is currently the shortest-serving head of government under the Fifth Republic. When President Emmanuel Macron appointed the 73-year-old former Brexit negotiator to the post in September, it was a long-term goal to maintain control of the government. The prime minister’s main task was to secure a budget for 2025 that adhered to the president’s pro-business policies while charting a course to significantly reduce the deficit amid growing concerns about France’s public finances.

But the votes weren’t there. The prime minister, who heads a small coalition linking the Macronists in parliament and Mr Barnier’s centre-right republican party, could count on the support of barely more than 200 MPs in the lower house (289 votes are needed for a majority). Even that “common ground” through which proxies and the media had forged a shaky Macronist-Republican alliance proved weak from the start. Since the establishment of the government, the parties in the coalition government and their leadership have tended to become more internally conflicted and competitive.

With the situation at a disadvantage, Mr. Barnier had little choice but to mount an unassailable challenge, announcing on December 2 that he would use a special clause in the constitution to force the social security financing bill through a vote in parliament. By invoking “49.3,” President Barnier exposed his government to a motion of no confidence, which was immediately tabled by the left-wing National Front (NFP). The vote of 331 MPs, most of them from the left and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Party (RN), was more than enough to block Barnier and oust the prime minister from power. In Congress, President Macron is running out of gas.

The same holds true for the president’s stance toward the broader public. Mr. Barnier’s ouster marks the latest development in a political crisis that began in early June, when Mr. Macron surprised the country by dissolving the National Assembly. The ensuing snap election split the House of Commons by one-third, revealing a widespread rejection of Macron’s technocratic centrism. Le Pen and her far-right coalition, once considered the front-runner in the race, won 142 seats in parliament. The NFP finished in first place with 193 seats, thanks to tactical voting in the run-off by moderates and leftists seeking to prevent Le Pen’s party from power. Meanwhile, Macron’s centrist coalition has shrunk from 250 seats in the previous parliament to just 166.

Barnier’s tenure provided a brief respite for a president whose approval ratings remain at record lows. According to a November poll, 76% of the public disapproved of President Macron’s handling of the presidency. With Mr Barnier’s budget passed by parliament, a majority thought the opposition should vote to sink the government. “My decision to dissolve parliament was not understood,” Macron said in a televised speech Thursday night, an unusual admission for a chronically self-confident president.

Mr. Macron was right, shifting much of the blame to the opposition. “[Barnier] “Unprecedented in the last 60 years, the far right and the far left have united in an anti-republican front and have been condemned because the forces that once ruled France have decided to support them,” Macron continued. The president is expected to hold a series of meetings in the coming days with officials from the centre-left Socialist Party, his centrist party and the Republican Party, before naming a new prime minister.

Barnier’s government failed when the main conceit that had sustained it collapsed: Le Pen’s goodwill. For Barnier, who aimed above all to check the power of the NFP, the only other crutch he could think of was the far right. Since September, Rassemblement National has enjoyed this kingmaker role. “Whatever happens, we decide,” RN official president Jordan Bardella boasted this fall.

Mr. Barnier bent over backwards to soothe and soothe the RN. He appointed staunch conservatives to his cabinet, including the ultra-conservative Bruno Letaillot as interior minister, to anchor the government on terms that could potentially defer to Ms. Le Pen. Barnier promised to consider reforms to France’s parliamentary electoral system, long demanded by far-right groups, and promised to prepare tough new anti-immigration policies for early 2025. When Macronist Finance Minister Antoine Armand suggested in late September that he would not speak to Ms. Le Pen or the RN during the campaign, Mr. Barnier reprimanded him while drafting the budget and called Ms. Le Pen to apologize. did.

To fuel the wheels of closeness, the Common Foundation party moved closer to Le Pen on immigration, while the National Party moved towards more traditional conservative positions on economic policy. But the risk of tying the Kuomintang’s fate too closely to an unpopular government ultimately led Ms. Le Pen to draw the curtain just to show strength.

Le Pen may return to a more compromising position in the future. After voting, she said her party “ [a future government] They will get to work and enthusiastically “co-construct” a new budget. In recent days, Le Pen’s caucus has reportedly been instructed not to celebrate Barnier’s ouster too much.