Fund managers say we are bearish, but now we are bullish. The engineers say we are bullish, we’ve become bearish. Because the ratings were not supportive and the fund manager was bearish. The assessment is now supportive. Technical experts are bearish. why? They were bullish because they had strong momentum before, so now they are weak. So who would make it right, a fund manager or technician?
Dinshaw Irani: So essentially, the call is inventive here. You can’t speak up. So I really decided that it wasn’t about calling bears or bull markets. Go with your gut. The gut looks, and says we are near the bottom. And the momentum is clear from the way it waned. If anything, I’ve been marketing Midcap funds for the past week. It was released recently. And the emotions in the distribution space are quite buoyant. They are very enthusiastic too, but unfortunately, when there are enough ideas, they don’t have enough money to deploy them into those ideas. In fact, that’s a data point I want to share with you. India had commanded a 24-25% premium through the MSCI World Index last September.
We are talking more about MSCI India than the MSCI world. Today, that premium has dropped to around 3-4%. So it is clear that things have really turned around in terms of interest India generates globally, and that is evident from the sale of FII, and the fact that the rupee has been under pressure for some time ,yes.
We’re somewhere near the bottom. Anyway, our sense is, call and look at the stock. I don’t know which sectors will move. Because even if I tell you the sector, there are stocks that move within those sectors. It will be a very stock-specific gathering, but at this stage it is very clear that it is a time when you can really identify good stocks and really create wealth for your investors. Where we are.
Now I take that bull analogy and move the bear forward. The US market continues to have a strong bull market. The bear market has bears started in India. I have never seen such a divided world. Because if it’s a bare market, it’s generally a bare market for stocks. If it’s a bull market, it’s a bull market for general stocks. In India, it’s not something you feel. In fact, it is true that the bare market has bears started with small and medium-sized inventory.
Dinshaw Irani: So, one thing. So, the US bull market you’re referring to is driven primarily by seven strange stocks. So you saw what Deepseek did one day when they reported the numbers.
So, now it’s clear that we’re talking about quantum chips and things like that from the US itself. So it’s like the battle going on there. If you ask us, we also have an offshore fund, a global fund managed by Samir and his team in Singapore, and finally I chatted with them. About US stocks they believe are very expensive compared to what they offer in terms of growth.
So I think that markets also seem to have grown to some extent. When it comes to India itself, I’m yes, yes it’s okay, so the mid cap and small cap are 20% plus, the index and clearly indicating that there is a bear market going on there.
But like I said, when you look at the inside pocket, unfortunately, Smallcap is just an index of 250 shares, but looking beyond them, it’s well worth seeing.
In fact, even mid-cap space, if you really bubble up when you take away the top 30 names of great value, you’ll come up with a pretty reasonable set of stocks that are pretty well placed in terms of valuations in comparison. They become such historical things.
And we’re doing this exercise so we can say that because we want to roll out the money when we get the Midcap fund. In fact, we can see this being very clear and this is from the middle onwards and see the future growth. 35% is allowed above Midcaps, and we are only considering more SmallCaps.
In fact, we make it a mid-cap fund and a small-cap fund. The mid cap weighs 66-67%, with a small cap left. So, how obvious it is in our minds that it is time for us to choose a good idea. In our sense, the market feels that it will be integrated from here. We haven’t actually seen the meeting.
We may see integration, perhaps time corrections, but with that time correction, you will identify your stock, build your position, study them, study them, study things like that. There is plenty of time. That’s where we are today.
Just this morning we were actually betting on this market correction story when you’re getting the opportunity and was arguing about the fact that you get your stock at 30% cheaper value, Why don’t you go ahead and buy it? And help us understand that you are the sector you actually concluded with this amendment. We know some of your stock picks so I won’t go specifically to stock, so I’ll leave it to you if you want to mention some names.
Dinshaw Irani: No, I won’t mention the name, but please tell me this. So basically, analysts came across us one day, he said, he looked, there’s stock quoted in 90 PEs, now he’s quoted in 70 PEs, he’s this I was pretty excited about it.
And we asked him, what is the growth rate? He said it was about 12-13%. We said, I won’t go. So, just because I was 90 and I was estimating at 70 today doesn’t work that way. In fact, you had to be very clear. That is, it’s not just a revision, but the stock has been revised to a reasonable value, even if future growth is expected. So, if you look at it that way, obviously there are quite a few stocks in the financial services sector, very revised and I believe things look pretty decent. In fact, even in some platform companies, you see that happening, but we believe there will be enough growth over the next few years.
Also, when we talk about capital goods, essentially capital goods, it is a domestic goods, and we are not talking about one play or outsourcing play with China, but mainly domestic capital goods. It’s a focused company. Value is displayed.
