Fantasy football predictions, expectations, surprises for 2024

With less than a week to go, NFL games will be counted and fantasy football results will be tracked. Hopes are running dry and everyone has an opinion on which player will do this or which team will do that. That’s the fun of being a fan, right?

With that in mind, we asked ESPN fantasy football analysts to share their thoughts with the world, and don’t be surprised if these ideas come to fruition.

…Don’t be surprised if this happens.

Adonai Mitchell finished as a top 35 fantasy WR

Currently drafted as the WR61, the Indianapolis Colts rookie has the size and speed to be a big threat in this offense (his 4.34-second 40-yard dash time was the third-fastest among wide receivers at this year’s combine), and with Josh Downs currently out with a sprained ankle, Mitchell had the opportunity to build rapport with QB Anthony Richardson in camp. Mitchell flew under the radar at Georgia, but showed glimpses of potential at Texas, which the Colts liked, and they drafted him with the 52nd overall pick. If Downs is out for an extended period or Mitchell gets playing time, it could be a big return on investment for fantasy managers. — Stefania Bell

Travis Etienne Jr. is a top-five fantasy running back

Etienne averaged 16.6 points and 12 touchdowns per game last season. He is a 267-run runner with dual-threat skills that can thrive in the passing game, catching 58 of 73 passes in 2023. Even if his total touches drop slightly this season, his availability will ensure a steady weekly run volume as both a runner and receiver, while also creating scoring opportunities low in the red zone. The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has the ingredients and head coach Doug Pederson’s scheme to produce explosive numbers in 2024, which could be a real plus for Etienne. Matt Bowen

Kyren Williams is a top-five fantasy running back

Williams’ rating has been dropping following the recent “news” that he will be the primary punt returner for the Los Angeles Rams. Note that Williams assumed that role from Week 1 to Week 3 last season (responsible for all three Rams punt returns) and played 86% of the team’s offensive snaps during that span. Williams actually started the 2023 season in a timeshare with Cam Akers, but in a comfortable Week 1 win over Seattle, he played 14 of the team’s first 24 running back carries and 67% of the snaps. He reached the end zone twice in that game and was fifth among running backs in fantasy points until Austin Trammell took over punt return duties in Week 4. We had already factored in Williams’ usage rate dropping with the addition of rookie Blake Collum, so double-counting it now that he’s returning one or two punts per game seems like a mistake. A year after joining Christian McCaffrey as the only Bucks to average over 18.0 fantasy PPG, the 24-year-old Williams is well positioned for another solid RB1 season. — Mike Clay

The Denver Broncos’ passing game produces impressive fantasy numbers

Marvin Mims Jr., in particular, will be the breakout star in our game as many predicted in 2023. Bo Nix being selected as the starting quarterback is a big plus, given that he looked comfortable enough in the pocket and made no mistakes in the two preseason games. Tim Patrick’s firing streamlines the receiver pecking order, making Courtland Sutton and Mims safer targets than they were a few weeks ago. Sutton, who will be the 42nd wide receiver on average, and Mims, who is outside the top 75 at his position, have the ceiling to reach the top 20 at his position. Nix, on the other hand, has the matchup appeal and the chance to be a surprise, top 12 quarterback at his position. Tristan H. Cockcroft

Kyle Pitts is TE1 this season

The first three seasons of Pitts’ career have been frustrating for fantasy managers. He became just the second tight end in league history to reach 1,000 yards receiving in his debut, but even his rookie season was a bit disappointing with only one touchdown. Injuries, quarterback play and strategy design have been co-conspirators over the past two years. This season is when it all finally comes together. Pitts will play for an Atlanta Falcons offense that features his exceptional talents and is led by talented quarterback Kirk Cousins. This time next year, we’ll likely be looking at Pitts as a second- or third-round fantasy pick. — Tyler Fulghum

Derrick Henry throws 20 touchdowns

Maybe that’s not bold enough. 25 scores? Henry has had six straight seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns, but even his 2,000-yard season was “only” 17. And that was a 16-game season. Now he’s played 17 games and the Baltimore Ravens offense is in perfect shape with a stronger offensive line and a slick quarterback with elite skills and creative play-calling. After all, if Gus Edwards can score 13 touchdowns, what can Henry do? Sure, he’s 30, but he’s still crushing defenders and piling up yards after contact. And touchdowns outnumber receptions. — Eric Caravel

Rome Odunze passes Keenan Allen to become Caleb Williams’ No. 2 target.

It’s a matter of when, not what. Odunze will likely be Williams’ second-favorite target behind DJ Moore by the end of the season. Odunze has exuded alpha energy throughout his collegiate career (he was a Biletinoff Award finalist in 2023 with 10 games of 100+ yards receiving). Since being drafted ninth overall by the Chicago Bears, he and Williams have shown instant chemistry. The two have worked well together, especially on unstructured plays that have led to impressive wins. 45 Yard Connection Odunze was selected in the team’s third preseason game against Cincinnati, and a player with Odunze’s size, route skill and catch radius won’t be relegated to third wide receiver duties for long. His numbers might be a bit hit-or-miss at first, but as a 10th-round pick (a whopping three rounds after Allen was selected), he’s a player with great upside. — Liz Rosa

Travis Kelce finishes outside the top 5 TEs

While Kelce remains one of the best (if not the best) tight ends in the game, the gap between him and the rest has narrowed considerably. Since 2016, Kelce has finished as the top tight end six times and has never finished lower than TE3 during that time. His dominating performance was impressive, but now Kelce has competition not only in his own offense, but also with other exciting fantasy-relevant tight ends. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kinkaid, Evan Engram, David Njoku, and (now that they have a real QB) Kyle Pitts, to name just a handful, are too numerous to mention. Kelce turns 35 this year and will also have to deal with Russie Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown stealing targets in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Kelce recorded the second-lowest target share of his career last season, but that was before the Chiefs added more weapons to their offensive line. Gold doesn’t last forever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if the top tight end changes hands this season. Daniel Dopp

Caleb Williams has thrown for over 4,000 yards and is a top 10 fantasy QB.

The Bears are the only team that has never had a quarterback pass for 4,000 yards in a season. With a great supporting cast, Williams is in prime position to end that drought. As the No. 1 pick, he will be the first rookie quarterback selected in the top five to throw to multiple players (Moore, Allen) who had at least 1,200 receiving yards the previous season. He will also be targeting fellow first-round rookie Odunze, who led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in his final collegiate season at Washington. Williams’ rushing ability has a high fantasy ceiling. — Eric Moody

Jayden Daniels finished as a top-seven fantasy QB as a rookie

Daniels is ranked as the 12th best QB in my preseason rankings, one spot above Caleb Williams among rookie playmakers. Daniels has a lot going for him in terms of starting off with a strong season, including elite mobility for his position (he led all FBS players in yards per rush last season with at least 100 rushes), throwing talent and the fact he will lead a fast-paced offense that frequently plays from behind this season. We often stress the importance of quarterback rushing to create a high floor, but Daniels has great potential. — Field Yates