Jason McIntyre
Co-host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
A lot goes into handicapping these NFL games. It’s a labor of love and a constantly evolving process.
Two weeks ago, things that used to work well seemed to be coming back. And that’s going to give teams that didn’t cover the spread the week before a long, hard look when they play teams that did. Two weeks ago, those matchups were 7-2. Last week it was 4-1-1.
Five of them remain this week after the Falcons’ win on Thursday.
I don’t want to bet blindly on these games, but for me it’s a great starting point.
(all times Eastern)
Sunday, October 6th
jets @ vikings (9:30 a.m., NFL Network)
The Vikings have been the surprise of the season, and if you’re rooting for them here, you’re at the top of the market.
This game was Jets -2.5 last week. It’s a 5 point swing. I know it wasn’t because of the numbers that mattered, but the Jets played like garbage in the rain and the Vikings beat the Packers 28-0, so it was worth it.
This was the best play Sam Darnold has faced in a secondary that has committed five turnover-worthy plays (Will Revis has six, Aaron Rodgers has zero). One would assume the Jets would load up the box and Darnold would test the best secondary in the NFL and rattle the Vikes’ quarterback.
New York wasn’t fully prepared for Denver’s onslaught last week, which is the most embarrassing since the Broncos’ onslaught at a league-high 44%. But if OC Nathanial Hackett isn’t ready for this week’s game against Minnesota, it’s going to be an offensive attack. Brian Flores has the most blitzes in the NFL this season (82).
While the media flooded the Vikings, the Jets won the game completely.
Pick: Jets (+2.5) Lose by less than 2.5 points or win outright.
colts @ jaguars (1 p.m., CBS)
Please finally bring a victory to the Jaguars, who haven’t won here at home.
Adding to Buffalo’s embarrassment, the Jags were held scoreless in three games late in the fourth quarter. This is partially due to poor play calling on high leverage downs.
Indy will be without Jonathan Taylor, and as of this writing it’s unclear whether Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco will start at QB. The latter actually scared me thanks to the accuracy of his short passes against this soft Jacksonville zone defense.
The Jags have been a playman all season, switching to zone last week, which mostly worked until Stroud destroyed it in the fourth inning.
Take the Colts off that fast indoor track and they’ll slow down. The Jags are 8-0 straight up (SU) and 8-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games against their division rivals.
Pick: Jaguars (-3) Win by 3 points or more.
Who will perform better between Dak Prescott and Justin Fields in Cowboys vs. Steelers?
cowboys @ steelers (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Last week, the Steelers suffered a blowout 17-0 loss to Indy, but bounced back and lost by a narrow margin. On Thursday Night Football, Dallas covered with a win against the lowly Giants. Since that win, the Cowboys have lost two of their best defensive players in DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, as well as their No. 2 wide receiver, Brandin Cooks.
Pittsburgh is expected to engineer a matchup between superstar edge rusher TJ Watt and rookie tackle Tyler Guyton. Tyler Guyton is tied for second among linemen with seven penalties and tied for second in sacks (four).
How desperate is Dallas’ offense?
It looks like Dalvin Cook will be promoted from the practice squad for this game as if Dallas can run the ball. Outside of the Justin Fields meltdown, this feels like the Steelers and is probably comfortable.
Pick: Steelers (-2.5) Win by at least 2.5 points.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports Betting Analyst and also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before joining FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter@Jason RMcIntyre.
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