Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College football season seems to fly by already.
It’s Week 4 and there are already some big games scheduled.
This is mostly due to conference restructuring, but still.
Additionally, USC will make its Big Ten Conference debut this Saturday, taking on Michigan in the Big House.
Here are my picks for this week.
(All times Eastern Standard Time)
Saturday, September 21
Utah @ Oklahoma (4 p.m. on FOX FOX Sports App)
There’s probably no one who is a bigger fan of the University of Utah program that didn’t attend the game than I. I covered the University of Utah for six seasons on Pac-12 Radio with a co-host who played at Utah.
I love everything about Coach Kyle Whittingham’s program: it’s tough, it’s physical, it’s tenacious, it’s a real problem for any team that plays against them.
That being said, we must discuss the elephant in the room.
Utah hasn’t won a major road or neutral game since beating No. 17 Arizona State in 2019. That Sun Devil team finished under .500 in conference play the rest of the season.
Quarterback Cam Rising’s win-loss record at home and away only underscores this point.
They are 13-0 when starting games at home and 7-6 when starting games on the road or at a neutral site. Two of their six Rose Bowl games have been losses overall, with the Rising failing to finish those games. The two losses have come on the road to ranked teams, including Oregon and UCLA in 2022. The loss to Florida can be attributed to poor defense and a late Rising interception as Utah tried to take the lead.
Their last road loss came in 2021 at Oregon State.
CFB Week 4 Super Six: Utah @ Oklahoma State and more
It’s hard to pinpoint a specific reason why Utah struggles on the road compared to home. They do things that seem important on the road: they’re good up front and they’re good defensively. The Rising have a few more interceptions, but they’re not spectacular.
I believe the reason Utah struggles on the road is because they can’t generate explosive passing plays, which is necessary to win against big opponents on the road. The Rising have only thrown nine touchdown passes in their six road losses. Playing a dink-and-dunk game on offense takes too long and leaves the offense vulnerable to mistakes.
But Utah may be better off with an Oklahoma State defense, which has allowed the third-most plays of 10 or more yards through three weeks this season and is 125th in plays of 20 or more yards allowed.
What I am saying is that while this Pockets defense is great, Utah hasn’t shown the ability to throw passes consistently down the field in years.
I am concerned about Utah’s run defense because many of their defensive linemen and linebackers have gone to the NFL. It’s not very good and in theory Oklahoma State should be able to defend the run, but it has been a weak run defense so far this season. Ollie Gordon is averaging just 3.5 yards per run compared to 6.1 last season. This is a problem for the Pockets and I’m not sure they will be able to do well in run defense again this weekend.
That being said, Utah State has a history of playing on the road with a rising quarterback, so I have no choice but to bet points on Oklahoma State in this game. And the sample size is not small.
Prediction: Oklahoma State (+1.5) to lose by less than 1.5 points or win outright.
Lincoln Riley talks USC-Michigan and Miller Moss’ development
U.S.C. @ Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS)
As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”
Well, I shouldn’t be embarrassed, because the Wolverines are back at Michigan this weekend after failing to pull out wins in their last two games against Texas and Arkansas State.
Michigan is on the right side, even if it’s ugly. The Wolverines couldn’t stop Davis Warren from throwing the ball to the opposition, so they benched him for Alex Orji. Orji may not be the passer Warren hoped he would be, but that doesn’t mean the offense can’t function with Orji in charge.
Michigan may change their offense to an RPO, QB run, play-action passing team. USC’s run defense has not been challenged this season and Michigan has a force up front that could make this game ugly with the run.
The Trojans’ offense is coming off two straight big wins thanks to Miller Moss’s performance, coming off a bye week.
SC will have something against Michigan and if the Trojans get off to a fast start, it could be the end for the Wolverines as they don’t have the ability to come back from a big deficit.
But it’s unclear whether USC is ready to take on such a physical Michigan defense.
That physicality troubled USC last season, and without the circus-like play, I’m not sure SC will be able to move the ball that well against UM.
Finally, and this is one of the most difficult aspects of handicapping a game, you need to take into account the emotions of college football players.
After a blowout loss to Texas and a narrow win over Arkansas State, everyone has “written off” on Michigan. Now is the time to bet on Michigan. The Wolverines still have talented players and a coaching staff that knows how to coach. I expect Michigan to win.
Prediction: Michigan (+5.5) will lose by less than 5.5 points or win outright.
Jeff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL with five different teams. He played three seasons as a right tackle at the University of Oregon, where he was named second team All-Pac-12 his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Jeff Schwartz.
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