According to an assessment by the Bank of Baroda (BOB) Economic Research (ERD), retail inflation is expected to settle at 4.1% in February 2025, supporting a rapid downward correction of vegetable prices.
ERD noted that the BoB Essential Commodity Index (Bob ECI) continued to slow in February 2025, easing to 2.4% year-on-year.
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“For vegetables such as tomatoes and potatoes, we saw a major downward correction. Inflation in the main categories of pulses remains a check supported by better supply-side dynamics. Milk prices reduction lends more support for CPI’s overall print.”.
She observed that global volatility in key asset prices, such as gold, basic metals, and other major asset prices have not yet been supplied to inflation, as energy prices remain primarily at the bottom.
“We expect CPI to settle at 4.1% in February 2025. However, we do not completely rule out the upside-down pressure on food prices that are globally sticky edible oil prices, global inflation tariff policies and food prices that arise from hot summer forecasts.”
