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It is a truism that vice presidential debates in the United States have little impact on election results. After Tim Walz’s lackluster performance against J.D. Vance on Tuesday night, Democrats will hope that remains the case.
Political betting site Polymarket predicted Walz’s chance of victory at 70% at the start of the debate. By the end his batting average was only 33 percent. There is some solace in the fact that the television audience is likely to be much smaller than the roughly 70 million viewers who watched the meeting between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump last month.
In any case, the debate between Vance and Walz was likely the last of the 2024 presidential campaign. President Trump has shown no interest in agreeing to Harris’ call for a second meeting, which is understandable given how much blood she shed during their first meeting.
When it comes to how America will vote on November 5th, Tuesday’s “intense debate” may not even rank second among the most influential events of the day. The first was Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the threat of a broader Middle East war. If Tuesday’s oil price spike continues, it will lead to higher fuel prices in the U.S., hurting consumer sentiment and hurting Harris. Impressions of turmoil in the Middle East are also likely to influence Mr. Trump’s hand.
Perhaps the second most important event on Tuesday was President Trump’s withdrawal from the widely watched CBS show. 60 minutes Shaw and Harris confirmed their participation next week. How she is received in that interview, and the fact that Trump is absent, is likely to have a bigger impact than Vance and Walz’s controversy with the millions of American voters who are still undecided. .
Nevertheless, the meeting with the vice president gave some indications about the nature of this election. Three stood out.
The first is Vance’s confidence and fluency. The Ohio senator also told an astonishing lie. Among the most damning were Vance’s claims that he has never supported a federal abortion ban and that Trump strengthened the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. Mr. Vance has consistently supported national bans and other restrictions on women’s bodily autonomy. President Trump has repeatedly attempted to repeal the ACA.
Vance also dodged questions about whether the 2020 election was stolen. His evasion may come back to haunt him. But overall, Vance has clearly taken some extensive advice on how to become a more likable person. The debate mirrored the meeting between Trump and Harris last month. Both vice presidential candidates behaved politely throughout.
Second, Waltz was nervous and often staggered. The Harris-Waltz campaign takes some pride in avoiding mainstream media interviews and press conferences. Mr. Walz’s exposure has primarily been in soft environments with friendly journalists. Vance, by contrast, tours his Sunday morning show nearly every week. His clever evasions and sophisticated arrogance belyed hours of practice on live television.
The Harris-Waltz camp may come to regret preferring a more benign environment. America’s relatively small but crucial segment of wavering voters has repeatedly told pollsters they want more information about Harris’ policies. It is surprising that Mr. Trump has provided so few policy details. But no one ever said politics was fair.
In the end, Tuesday night offered a glimpse into one possible future for America. Vance’s performance was more significant considering the respective age differences between his running mate and boss. He is 40 years old, only half President Trump’s age. The prospects of Harris ceding to Vance before the end of Trump’s second term are much higher than the prospects of Harris ceding to Walz, who is several months older.
Vance conveyed Trumpism in a flavorful way. He defended every tenet of Trumpism, including refusing to accept Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. However, his attitude was calm and rational.
Many Republicans had high hopes last year for Florida’s Ron DeSantis as someone who could support Trumpism without Trump. DeSantis has proven to be a no-no when it comes to debates and hustings. Vance, on the other hand, has a future no matter what happens next month. Liberals are right to fear Vance. He is a hardline Christian nationalist. But after Tuesday night, they would be hasty to fire him.
edward.luce@ft.com
